GLOBAL POLITCS
With the Ukraine- Russia war in no mood to end, prospects of its spillover must not be brushed aside even as it threatens to snowball into a nuclear war unless good sense gains an upper hand. Good news is that the warring sides have time and again allowed space for peace talks albeit to no avail. The recent peace summit by Ukraine was yet another go at ending the war.
The Ukraine Peace Summit, organized in Switzerland on June 15-16, was intended to get the Global Majority’s backing for President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s “peace formula” which includes Russia’s pull out from Ukraine and forming an international tribunal to put Putin government on trial for the alleged war crimes on the Ukrainian territory.
Such a scenario admittedly can come to pass only through a comprehensive victory over Russia on the battlefield. This appears to be a far cry. Nevertheless, with a major section of the global community publicly providing support in spades to these demands, Zelenskyy’s stance against Putin could have got a fillip.
But this armed conflict is showing no signs of resolving that way. Sweating on isolating Russia globally is unlikely to take off and yield a desired outcome. The main reason being that Russia is not switched off to the goings-on and to the emerging challenges confronting it.
True to its form, Moscow’s confidence has not been shaken by the fact that the West has thrown its weight behind Ukraine. A case in point is the failure of the Switzerland ‘ Peace Formula’: Instead of finding Russia in deep water, it has beefed up her resolve as it intimated that Ukraine is desperately in pursuit of an end to the prolonged war.
It is worth noting that the communiqué, which saw 81 participants at the summit as its signatories, does not suggest a potential settlement of the nonstop war. It covers Ukraine’s grain export, the safety of nuclear power stations and the return of the war prisoners and Ukrainian children swept away by the Russians from the warzone into Russia. Thus, a lot has been left to be desired.
A key but disappointing aspect of the summit was that India, Saudi Arabia and Brazil did not sign the document. These key actors held that a forum looking for peace with Russia with the latter not in attendance is heading nowhere. China refused to take part. US president Joe Biden did not reflect positive energy. He deputed Vice President Kamala Harris to represent his administration in Switzerland instead of himself visiting the country. Apparently this move by the US president due for re-election this year has more to it than meets the eye.
America’s ongoing decline in global influence in view of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and President Biden’s unending support to Israel, has largely contributed to the little success of the summit in question. Kyiv arguably bagged nothing substantial. Whether or not Ukraine subscribes to it, anyone viewed as America’s ‘client state’ is doomed to be eyed with skepticism.
It is unrealistic to suppose that China will turn against its ally Russia at the international stage. Having never ever approved of America’s friendly overtures towards Taiwan, Beijing looks the other way should any global level issue showing Washington in good light surfaces. Backing Ukraine’s peace summit found China taking a backseat; not adopting a Russia – adverse stand though.
Additionally, Ukraine’s own rhetoric has impacted the failed summit. In 2022, its president and some members of his government sought to project Ukraine as a victim of a colonial war from Russia. However, its gains were negligible. The bitter truth is that saying “the civilized world” – a term President Zelenskyy once again unknowingly used at a security conference in Singapore in early June— was a bid to bring round the Asian countries to attend the summit. The erstwhile victims of European colonialism disapprove being termed “uncivilised”.
Without doubt, Ukraine is a victim of Russian ultra-nationalism. But the Ukrainian claim to colonial victimhood is just a rhetorical trick by its own far right. This has done more harm than good.
Since this mega event, which was seeking to sell Zelenskyy’s “peace formula” to the international community, has not met with success, the Ukrainian leadership has supposedly abandoned the use of anti-colonial rhetoric and realized that talking to Russia to end the bloody war is a must- follow avenue.
Even Zelenskyy’s chief of staff Andriy Yermak voiced that Russian representatives could be invited to the next “peace summit”, which Ukraine is looking forward to hold before the end of the year in some other country. Russians could possibly sweep it aside. The invitation is okay though. Meanwhile, China’s peace initiative for Ukraine suggests freezing the conflict along the current front line. This has stolen Russia’s heart, persuading it to talk about the proposition.
However a day before the Switzerland summit, Putin stated that for peace to obtain , Ukraine will have to withdraw from the entire territory of the four regions Russia formally claimed as its own in 2022. This statement adds insult to injuries pushing Ukraine one step forward, two steps backward.
There is a likelihood that at the negotiating table, Moscow might leave out something not important to its national interests (such as territory) to achieve the real aims of its invasion — Ukraine’s neutrality, de-militarization and the end of ethno-nationalist policies looking to wipe out Russian language and culture in its territory.
And last but not the least, from Russia’s perspective compromising on the territory in order to secure these goals can still be a strategic victory over the West aside from Ukraine. The latter’s leadership could find itself on a sticky wicket for not heeding to the past peace talks held many a time since the war broke out around two years ago. For the West, the development could be a bitter pill to swallow having been unable to see Ukraine over the line. Hope a future peace endeavor pays rich dividends across the board.
(Author is RK Columnist and can be reached at: [email protected])
