India-Indonesia  Relations

With Indonesian President Joko (Jokowi) Widodo’s tenure nearing its end and Indonesia’s Election Commission having confirmed Prabowo Subianto’s victory in the February 2024 elections, it is time to look at how India-Indonesia relations will shape under the Prabowo administration. Prabowo is set to take over the country’s top leadership position from Jokowi in October this year. This will be the first time that Indonesia will witness a power transition between two administrations of the same political alliance. Jokowi endorsed Prabowo’s bid for the presidency this year and his eldest son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka as the vice presidential candidate. It has been pointed out that “the next administration appears as a de facto third term for Jokowi, or at least as representing continuity”. Therefore, the question that arises is will we witness a continuity and adherence to the policies of his predecessor not just in domestic politics and issues but also in foreign policy? How would the Indonesian foreign policy shape under Prabowo and where will India figure in it? During much of his election campaign, Prabowo pledged continuity with incumbent President Jokowi’s policies. Prabowo will carry forward the long-time sacrosanct principles of free and active (bebas dan aktif) and non-alignment underlining Indonesian foreign policy. But like Jokowi, whether his foreign policy’s focus is primarily on economic diplomacy remains to be seen. Many analysts opine that the foreign policy discourse of the Prabowo administration will not be “economics-heavy diplomacy” but instea  he will want to work towards pushing Indonesia to play a much bigger role in global affairs. Alongside economic, defence and security issues will be paid similar attention. During his election campaign, while he mentioned that Indonesia is a non-aligned nation and is looking to form partnerships and friendships with other nations. He also underscored that “National power must be military power. Without military power, the history of human civilisation will teach us that a nation will be crushed like Gaza is currently.” Therefore, it can be expected that Indonesian foreign policy under Prabowo will be more focused on security. Entering into security and defence partnerships with like-minded countries in the Indo-Pacific region will be a priority for this administration. This provides India with an opportunity to deepen its strategic and security partnership with Indonesia. India in a bid to boost its own defence exports recently delivered the first batch of BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles to Philippines. India in 2022 also delivered 12high-speed patrol boats to Vietnam, inked a mutual logistics sharing agreement with the country and the two countries signed a vision statement on defence ties till 2030. India is looking to cement its strategic and defence partnerships in Southeast Asia. The initial steps have already been taken with the Philippines and Vietnam. This aligns with India’s growing ambitions to emerge as a global player and a leading voice in the Global South. It is time for India to look into entering into similar defence acquisition agreements with Indonesia, which is not only India’s maritime neighbour in the Indian Ocean but is also perceived to have the most influence within the ASEAN. Prabowo had visited India in July 2020 with the aim to boost the defence partnership between the two countries. The two countries entered into a comprehensive strategic partnership in 2018 and have engaged in bilateral naval exercises, Samudra Shakti since 2018. The two countries affirmed a ‘Shared Vision of India-Indonesia Maritime Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific’ in 2018. It is time for India to take the bilateral relationship a step further.