Srinagar, Feb 15: This winter Kashmir experienced one of its driest and warmest winters, with most stations across the region recording significantly high temperatures. Srinagar recorded 18.2 °C which was 8°C above normal temperatures.
As per the MeT data, Qazigund recorded 17.7 °C which was 7.7°C above the normal temperatures. Srinagar recorded very low precipitation so far this season. Similarly in year 2024 (3.0 mm), 2018(1.2 mm), 2015 (5.6 mm), 2007 (8.1mm) 1986 (9.0 mm). Mean Tmax: 2024(11.9°C), 2018 (11.4), 2001 (11.7) and Mean Tmin: 2024(-3.2°C), 2022 (0°C), 2004 (0.3°C), 1990(1.1°C), 1988(0.9°C).
Similarly, Jammu recorded total precipitation so far in 2024 (5.7 mm), 2018 (9.8mm), 2007(0 mm), 1991 (0.6mm), 1984 (1.1mm). Mean Tmax: 2024( 13.4°C), 2003 (14.8°C), 1999 (16.5°C) and Mean Tmin: 2024 (5.5°C), 2003 (5.5°C), 1984 (5.3°C).
Except one major spell, Kashmir Valley witnessed an unusually prolonged dry spell during Chillai Kalan, the most severe phase of winter spanning 40 days from December 21 to January 29.
Throughout this extended period, the region witnessed a substantial rainfall deficit of 79-82%, significantly below the average of 59.6 mm.
Dr. Irfan Rashid, Senior Assistant Professor at Department of Geoinformatics, University of Kashmir, told Rising Kashmir that dry spell is worrying and would have serious consequences on the glacier melt in the upcoming summer.
“The depleted snowfall would result in early snowmelt exposing glacier surfaces earlier than usual to summer heat. This would exacerbate ice loss as reported in many recent scientific studies in the region,” he said.
Dr. Irfan further said given that most sectors of the economy in the Kashmir region are dependent on snow and glacier melt, the depleted snowfall would affect all the key sectors like agricultural produce especially rice paddies, hydropower generation, etc. if the situation does not improve”, he added.
Noted Environmental expert Faiz Bakhshi, who is also heading Environmental Policy Group (EPG) said that main reasons behind rapid climate change in Valley include massive deforestation, cutting down of hundreds of trees in highway projects, burning of fruit tree twigs and leaves, destruction of wetlands due to mismanagement leading to loss of water retention.
“There is also unplanned and rapid growth of commercial complexes, conversion of agricultural land for commercial purposes, poor planning and development in every part of the Valley,” he said.
Bakhshi said that there are violations of environmental laws, and lack of enforcement of existing regulations. To address the environmental challenges in Kashmir, a comprehensive set of measures should be implemented, targeting various aspects of the ecosystem, urban planning, and public awareness, he added.
Environmental activist Suhail Farooq believes that changing weather patterns in Kashmir, marked by dry winters and extreme summers, are attributed to a combination of global climate change and regional environmental factors.
He said that rise in global temperatures due to increased greenhouse gas emissions leads to altered weather patterns. The Himalayas, including Kashmir, are particularly sensitive to these changes.
“Over the past several decades we have lost a big chunk of forest cover and that has led to a reduction in the natural regulation of temperatures and precipitation. Forests play a crucial role in maintaining regional climate stability by absorbing carbon dioxide and regulating the water cycle,” Suhail said.
Dr. Sarfaraz Ahmad, Environmental Researcher said that Jammu University said that Valley has been experiencing erratic weather patterns for nearly three decades, leading to drought-like conditions, flash floods, and windstorms.
“In 2014, the region witnessed devastating floods due to incessant rains and cloudbursts. Rising temperatures have accelerated the retreat of most glaciers in the Kashmir Himalayas.
He said that Kolahoi Glacier, the largest in Kashmir’s Jhelum Basin, is rapidly shrinking, driven by global warming and extreme pollution. Similarly, the Thajiwas, Hoksar, Nehnar, Shishram, and glaciers around Harmukh are also melting at a fast rate, Dr. Sarfaraz said.
Meanwhile, Director MeT Srinagar, Dr. Mukhtar Ahmad said that from February 17 and 18, a brief spell of very light rain or snow may occur at isolated higher reaches, though nothing significant is expected until the February 18 .
“From February 19-20, Valley will experience generally cloudy skies with light rain or snow at scattered places, particularly from the late evening onward. Then again from 21st and 22nd Feb, partly cloudy conditions will prevail, with a possibility of light rain or snow at isolated places,” he said.
About sudden decrease in rainfall and snowfall in the region, Dr Mukhtar said that due to formation of weak WD’s, there was not any major snowfall in the region. Day temperatures are increasing this winter, it is mainly due to global warming,” he said.
