GEO POLITICS
A new chapter has been added to the history of Syria. President Bashar al-Assad was unseated on Sunday, ending his family’s 50-year reign, in a quick advance which reached the capital Damascus in only 12 days. The Syrian uprising had seen everything since it began in 2011 — merciless killings, blind destruction, homelessness, abject poverty and rampant violence. But peace in Syria is unlikely to strike root even though Assad is off the scene.
November 27 saw a ceasefire agreement coming into effect between Israel and Lebanon but only hours after the agreement, a coalition of Syrian opposition factions launched their blitzkrieg in years. With Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) spearheading, they attacked the positions of the Syrian regime in Aleppo province, advancing briskly as their opponents retreated giving in to the onslaught.
In the space of few days, the Syrian opposing factions found success in gaining control of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, and the whole Idlib governorate, all the way arriving at the outskirts of Hama. The unopposed advance by the anti-Assad regime forces has breathed a new lease of life into the conflict which was long seen fading away. Bashar al-Assad has not bagged victory to make way for peace negotiations as was presumed; he has lost power and is no more in office.
Notably for around 10 years, a coalition of Russian forces, Hezbollah outfit, and purportedly Iran-connected groups have rendered a helping hand to Assad, enabling him to carry on with the control of the most parts of Syria; leave out the north. But during the past two years, this coalition has weakened ostensibly in view of several developments which includes the Russia- Ukraine war going on since February 2022 and Israel— Lebanon war in the current year. So have the Iran – Israel and Palestine – Israel conflicts.
In 2023, following the rebellion of Yevgeny Prigozhin and his demise later on, Russia ordered his Wagner Group forces to leave Syria. These forces had played a critical role in ground battles there. This year, Moscow could not help pull out some of its air force units (from Syria) which had long ensured the much-needed air cover for the Syrian regime forces. Loud and clear was the message: Russian presence in Syria was dwindling.
The number of Hezbollah forces, which were deployed in Syria, has also come down. The war with Israel caused significant losses to the group: many of its top level members and the leader, Hassan Nasrallah, were killed. Resultantly, the group was forced to bring back several of its forces on their way towards Lebanon. Iran’s military presence in Syria has also taken a beating as a result of attacks from Israel.
The military forces of the Syrian regime too have ended up at the receiving end over the past 14 years of the deadly war. Damascus’s ability to pay regular wages has crumbled under the weight of a severe financial crisis. This scenario, it appears, has paid rich dividends to the opposition forces, sweeping away the Assad regime. With the latter overthrown, will Syria find the shores of peace after years of butchery and bloodbath? The rapid offensive from the opposition met with an out and out tired out army — the army whose fighting will had run out. Signs of a demoralized force were writ large — more so with the allies no longer on the ground and the Russian Air Force in the sky melted away. Their retreat led to the collapse of the ruling entity led by al- Assad; the opposition stormed in at the speed of light– to take control.
There should be no quarrel with the fact that the opposition’s performance has come a long way in recent years: it has organised itself better and turned more disciplined; HTS in particular. It is HTS that has carried the day for now, indicating that they are a force to reckon with and their fighting ability cannot be underestimated and disregarded.
Since al-Assad’s dispensation was seen as a winning side in the Syrian civil war after his forces took back the control over large parts of the country in 2018, which included the three de-escalation zones in the south, Damascus countryside and northern Homs, it has denied making any concessions or even engage in any negotiations whether through the United Nations-sponsored Geneva process or the Russian-sponsored Astana process.
Just last year, al- Assad was sent an invite to participate in the Arab Summit in Saudi Arabia. This brought to end 12 years of Arab isolation. The regime’s reading of all of this was that it could get back its membership and legitimacy in the comity of nations and secure economic aid for reconstruction without having to make any concessions to the Arab countries or to the Syrian opposition factions. This overconfidence has backfired.
Additionally, al-Assad ignored many an offer by Turkiye aimed at resolving the Syrian refugee issues and allowing the political process to make headway. This attitude did more harm than good. Is it one step forward, two steps backward for Syria? Time will decide. With al- Assad’s sad regime gone — and so is its illusion of victory– the opposition camp now controls most of northern Syria. Aleppo, home to about one-fifth of the Syrian population, has also fallen. As Aleppo is a hub of human, economic and industrial strength of Syria, it is likely to prove a viable asset for the opposition forces in terms of their power and future negotiations.
Despite al-Assad’s ouster, peace and stability in Syria appears to be a distant reality unless all the stakeholders are on board for power sharing. Anything less is bound to take the situation back to square one. As the Syrians deserve justice and peace across the political spectrum, the change of face in Damascus may not change their fate.
(Author is RK columnist and teacher by profession. He can be reached at: [email protected])
