Putin in Vietnam

After creating ripples across the Asia-Pacific in the aftermath of Russia signing the Comprehensive Strategic Treaty with North Korea, Putin visited Vietnam on 20 June 2024, after a gap of seven years. A lot has changed since then: a war in Ukraine and the Western sanctions have led to Southeast Asia gaining a new emphasis in Russian foreign policy, as reflected in the Russian Concept of Foreign Policy 2023, where a significant emphasis was laid on increasing economic, security and humanitarian cooperation with ASEAN member states. Hence, it is important to assess the implications of the visit not only from the point of view of understanding bilateral relations but also to understand what it means for the Southeast Asian region. Russia and Vietnam share historical ties, Moscow supported the communist forces during the Vietnam War and was the leading economic partner for Vietnam. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, there was a slight dip in bilateral ties in the 1990s, but the warm relations continued. In 2001, when Putin visited Hanoi, both nations concluded a strategic partnership, deepening economic and political cooperation. Cooperation in the energy sphere intensified after the Russian gas giant Gazprom and Petrovietnam built a modern refinery. Further, Petrovietnam has been implementing projects in the Nenets Autonomous Okrug in the Russian Arctic since 2008. Moscow has assisted Vietnam in building hydroelectric projects such as the Son La hydropower plant. Vietnam has strategically used Russian firms and investments in oil drilling projects in the South China Sea. By doing so, Vietnam can maintain its sovereignty and keep China at bay. The military partnership with Russia is another major driver in this dyad, with Moscow supplying Hanoi with military platforms such as the Su-27, Su-30 MKI, S-300 missile system, corvettes, Gepard class frigates, Svetlyak-class patrol boats, Kilo-class submarines, T-90 tanks, etc. In 2012, Russia concluded a Comprehensive Strategic Treaty in 2012. Hanoi was the only Southeast Asian nation to sign a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the Eurasian Economic Union. A military agreement was signed in 2016, and Russia has been granted access to the Cam Ranh Naval Base on a preferential basis. During this visit, Putin and Vietnamese President To Lam signed 11 agreements in education, nuclear technology research, disease prevention, oil exploration, and justice. The meeting witnessed the participation of leading Russian companies like the state-owned nuclear company Rosatom, the natural gas company Novatek, and the state-controlled oil company Zarubezhneft. Among the important ones, a joint statement on furthering strategic cooperation between Russia and Vietnam was signed. An MoU between Novatek and PetroVietnam on oil and gas cooperation was also inked, whereby Moscow will help build a 10 MW nuclear research facility in Vietnam and another agreement on cooperation on tax administration and countering customs offences. According to President Putin, 40 percent of the trade took place in national currencies, and that cooperation in the Vladivostok and Ho Chi Minh maritime corridor is promising. Moscow’s outreach to North Korea was largely geopolitical. But his visit to Vietnam has strong geoeconomic undertones with a hint of symbolism. This is because there is a degree of economic dependence due to historical ties, even though bilateral trade was only US$3.6 billion in 2023, which is far less than the US$175 billion trade with China and US$123 billion with the US and is not a major source of trade for Vietnam. Now, with the imposition of international sanctions on Russia, the trade potential will be even lower. But Hanoi is still a crucial partner, as some Vietnamese banks continue to process ruble transactions. Vietnam emerged as a major destination for Russian tourists, with Vietnam ranking 6th in the number of tourists it receives. With the initiation of the Russian concept of Foreign Policy 2023, the Russian Federation emphasises heightened cooperation with ASEAN countries. As part of its broader Look East policy proposed a decade ago, ASEAN is further a target region within the ambit of Russia’s Greater Eurasian partnership, connecting the Far East with Southeast Asia, and therefore Vietnam emerges as a major player in Russia’s outreach to Southeast Asia. This visit solidifies Russia’s relations with Vietnam while signalling growing multipolarity in the foreign policies of Southeast Asian nations.