Srinagar, Feb 09: As temperatures in Kashmir rose over 6°C above normal in January, and with February following suit, experts warn that even a single wet spell after the sprouting of plants could spell disaster for the horticulture sector, as the chilling period has already ended.
Speaking exclusively to Rising Kashmir, Akhtar H. Malik, a Junior Scientist from the Botany Department at the University of Kashmir, explained a noticeable shift in the traditional Chillai Kalan period over the past decade.
This 40-day span, which saw average daytime temperatures between 4–5°C, has now experienced a rise, with January temperatures averaging 8–12°C in recent years. This change has led to premature sprouting in many plant species.
He said, “Plants initiate floral bud formation early due to warmer conditions. The floral buds start blooming in January, which typically happens in February in some early spring flowering plants. However, due to an increase in day temperatures over the last decade, it has been observed that flowering has been preponed by two weeks. The same pattern has been seen in Gul-e-Toor (Sternbergia vernalis) and Virekum (Colchicum luteum) in the second week of January 2025.”
Historically, these plants would bloom in late February, but in years with little or no snowfall, blooming has occurred as early as January 12. In 2025, average daytime temperatures reached 10–12°C by January 10—about 6°C higher than the usual averages.
Experts warn that this early blooming and rising temperatures will negatively impact horticultural crops like plums, apricots, cherries, pears, and even apples. “These plants are becoming more sensitive to early blooming. If the temperature trend continues, almonds could start flowering by mid-March, and tulips are already showing early vegetative bud formation. With sustained warmth, they will sprout earlier than usual,” Malik added.
The consequences of early flowering, combined with warm temperatures, can be severe. Increased evaporation, followed by sudden condensation from western disturbances, may bring snowfall to higher reaches and low-lying plains. If snowfall occurs after flowering, premature petal fall could result.
“Petal fall before pollination prevents pollinators from reaching the flowers, leading to poor fertilization and reduced fruit set, which will directly affect our economy,” Malik warned.
He also noted that years marked by early blooms have consistently led to lower fruit yields. A sudden dip in temperature after warm spells can cause chilling injuries to crops, significantly reducing productivity. “Another risk of early blooming, along with erratic weather, is the increased likelihood of fungal infections. If these weather patterns continue, widespread infestations could follow,” he said.
Bashir Ahmad Bashir, President of the Fruit Growers Association, shared his concerns with Rising Kashmir, emphasizing the importance of the chilling period for plants. He observed that when temperatures rise early in January, followed by unpredictable weather, it causes significant damage to crops, particularly horticultural produce.
He further explained that snowfall in December traditionally provided irrigation benefits throughout the summer, ensuring better conditions for horticulture and agriculture. However, with early temperature rises, irrigation shortages may become a problem if these conditions persist.
“We used to see more than 20 lakh metric tons of apple production, sometimes even reaching 25 lakh metric tons. Now, we may only see 17–18 lakh metric tons. The Controlled Atmosphere (CA) stores are emptying faster due to high demand, but production isn’t keeping up. A similar trend could continue this year. While some claim that the area under horticultural cultivation has increased, we have not observed a corresponding rise in production. Instead, there’s been a decline, likely due to changing weather patterns,” Bashir added.
