GLOBAL POLITICS
If Ukraine is a sovereign state, why has it been encountering an undesirable war involving Russia for over two years? These two neighbouring countries are engaged in a fierce bloodbath, with each one seeking to hand a crushing defeat to the other. Before the disintegration of the former USSR in 1990’s, Ukraine was its integral part. However, this separation/sovereignty has not been innocuous — either for Russia or Ukraine. They would see each other with a suspicious eye given their different worldviews. Hence, no surprise should be the ongoing war.
In the late fifties and early sixties of the twentieth century, it was observed by many scholars that the sovereignty of states, including that of the superpowers, was on the decline for four major reasons: economic warfare, psychological warfare, air war and nuclear weapons. This thesis seems apt with respect to Ukraine and Russia. Both these sovereign states held that their sovereignty was being undermined by internal/ external factors; their respective territoriality becoming irrelevant. Each responded differently in line with its national interests.
When Russian administration directed it’s military to take on Ukraine in February 2022, it was believed that the war would be over in a week’s time only. Considering Russian superiority in armour, artillery, aircraft and manpower, it was not easy to see how Ukraine could resist all those tanks rushing into the country encircling and destroying Ukrainian forces. The latter were outnumbered by Russian troops.
Far from being over, the war is in full swing ever since. From Ukraine’s perspective, its forces have fought back strongly, defending their capital Kyiv and counterattacking. The US and its NATO allies have provided massive financial and military aid, including German Leopard tanks and anti-tank missiles. With no such backing at their disposal, the Ukrainians could not have withstood the onslaught for so long.
But, two years and two months after the invasion began, what’s happening now? Germany recently gave an aid package of 500 million Euros, but aid by both the US and EU has been checkmated. The Ukrainians do not have enough ammunition.
Before looking at the military situation, a look at the political implications. There is a terrific propaganda war in operation with both sides claiming victory. Yet, the fierce war has not culminated on the ground level.
While the formidable Russian military prowess is awaiting its triumph (in Ukraine), the Ukraine forces look set to defend their territory by pushing the Russians forces out of it. True, Ukrainians have been fighting back bravely. Nevertheless, the entry of Russian troops implies that Ukraine could not safeguard the sanctity of its territorial integrity. The Russian forces have reportedly taken 18% of Ukraine.
Notably what appears to have lost significance for the two warring nations and beyond, is the tremendous destruction: the collateral. The loss of infrastructure, socio-economic devastation and thousands of human casualties incurred by both the states— is irreparable.
These costs and consequences could have been prevented but for the ostensible failure of the diplomacy which now looks to be the only option that can see the end of the ongoing bloody war.
Each side, it appears, perceives that its opponent would wear out due to the prolonged war and subsequent wastage of resources only to eventually retreat. This perception, however, has not materialized since the war began over two years ago. As it turns out, neither Russia nor the west backed Ukraine has displayed any signs of fatigue as of today. Both sides look resolved to take the mega fight to its logical conclusion.
It is plain guesswork as to what Moscow really thinks, but its objectives are unlikely to be unrealistic and impractical. Learning that NATO was coming nearer to Russia’s land borders, Russian administration would have been worried and its pride hurt. This might have prompted it to act before Ukraine could fall under NATO to the displeasure of Moscow. The West saw the development as an invasion on it and has endeavoured hard to see Russia defeated.
Historically, the ex-USSR has never attacked the West. The Soviet army arrived in Berlin in 1945 in response to Hitler’s invasion of Russia. This nuclear powerhouse (Russia) is very sensitive regarding its borders having faced outside attacks by Vikings, Mongols, Tartars, the Huns, the Swedes under King Gustavus Adolphus, the French and West European forces following the Russian Revolution.
Meanwhile fearing that Ukraine may end up on the losing side, the West is backing it. Ammunition is being purchased worldwide from EU countries with the Czech Republic. Germany alone has so far given 32 billion euros to Ukraine in the form of weapons and other aid. Also EU countries have been sending missiles to Ukraine; these lethal weapons can get to the targets hundreds of kilometers inside Russia. And apart from the 88 billion euros paid by the EU, military aid was increased by a further 5 billion euros on March 13, 2024. Additionally, Ukrainian soldiers on EU territory are trained for operating a huge variety of weapon systems, including the most modern fighter jets.
Further fighting from Russia or Ukraine is potentially going to yield no positive results. Restraint is the key. But pushing NATO more and more towards Russian doorsteps, fuels Moscow’s concerns and apprehension about the country’s security. The Ukrainian war seemed to be a small scale war untill it completed one year with the result unknown. But, it took an ugly turn later on with the covert or overt backing of some other countries. Looming large has been a nuclear war.
To end the war amicably, diplomatic efforts are imperative. One significant step can be a meeting involving the Russian and Ukrainian presidents. Ceasefire is prerequisite. These confidence building measures are likely to pave the way for wide range negotiations between the two countries. Will better sense reveal, prevail, sustain? That remains to be seen.
(Author is RK Columnist and can be reached at: [email protected])
