A New Oil War

Oil has been the defining factor in international relations as it has been the key factor in the geo-strategic equations whenever there has been a tension related to balance of power. We are witness to the fact that the Gulf War in the 1990’s had a tremendous impact on the inflation and various other factors that keep the economies healthy. Players were different but the situation was by and large the same. It fuelled an energy crisis having consequences on the prices and the availability of fuel. It was an era when the Cold War showed a kind of saturation and then an emergence of a world order based on globalisation created new avenues all over the globe, leading to the dismantling of trade barriers. India too witnessed the emergence of new markets and the advent of various international players enabled the indigenous entrepreneurs to compete. It created an ecosystem in which the local players that played well emerged as the brand and shaping the trajectory of the new Indian economy and also nurtured a new generation of Indians who spread their wings across the continents making India proud. But amid all this fanfare there is a shift in the global power equation. Globalisation led to the establishment of the world order that was influenced by a single super power that is the United States of America (USA) as the USSR was balkanised and its constituents sought independence. It had significance and was the dismantling of communism. Communism was witnessing a steep decline across the globe with people adopting capitalism and hence, an inclination to be part of an American dream was a trend. Perhaps the time has come a full circle as we are witnessing conflicts that are having an impact on the existing world order that we cannot deny. It is an open secret now that the USA wants to outwit China so that its supremacy on the global scene remains unchallenged. Russia-Ukraine War has taught new politics to the keen watchers of international relations as it has been consistently seen that opportunism is the only objective when we look towards the US. It tried to broker peace but ended in catalysing the conflict to the level. Israel went after Iran  and targeted it  so that its nuclear weapons are made blunt. As it poses a threat to its sovereignty. Iraq responded to these attacks. President Trump wanted to play safe and it seemed that the US won’t jump to target Iran but that was not the case. Trump’s move to attack the nuclear facilities of Iran took people by surprise. These moves make  the world quite unsafe and predictability has no place as it used to have in the geo-strategic affairs. Besides the war based on the usage of weapons, the US has already started the tariff war that is affecting the global economy. And India too has been targeted in this move. Now things have reached a different level where threatening postures are being adopted by the US and its allies. NATO has warned the nations from purchasing oil and gas from Russia and has threatened them with a 100 % tariff. India has responded that those who purchase oil from Russia are  warning others of tariff. Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri  has assured that India is confident of meeting its oil demands from the alternative sources if the Russian supplies are hit by the sanctions. Reiterating India’s  competence to meet its oil demands he has said, “India has diversified the sources of supply and we have gone, I think, from about 27 countries that we used to buy from to about 40 countries now.” But one thing is clear that we have entered an era of a new oil war.