The year-long Russia-Ukraine massive war has been disastrous. It has caused the death of thousands of precious lives, has displaced millions of people and destroyed homes, civilian buildings and infrastructure. The sufferings and hardships of the populace, in the backdrop of the unabated war, have paled into insignificance. Right now, no end is in sight to the ongoing war.
In addition, the full-scale war has spread its toxic effects to the other parts of the world: it has badly affected the energy markets, triggered hard-hitting inflation and disrupted the supply of foods and commodities. Similarly, it has encouraged arms race, upped the nuclear proliferation effects, compromised the principles of the United Nations, ridiculed the international law and multilateral cooperation.
Ukraine could have foreseen Russian intentions when in 2014 Moscow took away its (Ukraine’s) Crimean Peninsula and allegedly fuelled a political crisis in its Donbas region. And to deter president Putin’s plan execution, the key for the Ukrainian administration would have been taking preemptive measures to defend its borders. It remains unclear whether Ukraine was caught off guard because of its overconfidence or it was devoid of the wherewithal to prevent Russian attack in the first place.
What added fuel to fire was the inability or unwillingness of European powers to arrive at a diplomatic solution in the subsequent years; the sustained insistence of the United States on carrying the NATO military alliance through Ukraine upto Russia’s borders (which the latter saw as a threat to it), boomeranged causing the worst— the ongoing devastating war in Ukraine since February 2022. If Ukraine has backing from the West —including the US — Moscow, it appears, is playing a waiting game to watch the western support wane and wait out for the Ukrainians.
Pertinently, the horrendous war —which Russia believes is aimed at destabilizing it — has seen the loss of men and material on both sides. This has shown the world’s state of affairs in bad light. Despite appeals of peace talks to resolve the conflict from many quarters, the two warring states are in a denial mode, leaving the rest of the world in a precarious situation.
The whole world feels more unsafe, fearing the most dreadful — the nuclear war might occur if the current conflict in Ukraine prolongs and stays unresolved. What strengthens the apprehension is that like other wars of choice before it, the Ukraine war has given a severe beating to the international system, laying bare its prestige and credibility. And making it — toothless.
Notably the post world-war II bipolar world, the post cold war unipolar world and the present multipolar world orders, stand witness that for the world powers the international norms and agreements (during geopolitical conflicts) can easily be pushed to background when it comes to fulfilling their foreign policy goals. It is the weak powers which are required to respect the norms at any cost in order to avoid the consequences of non-compliance.
Russia’s decision to invade neighbouring Ukraine —in spite of the two countries sharing history and culture — indicates that the global system is riddled with flaws. The powerful smoothly rise against the powerless, leading the latter to seek nuclear weapons as a deterrent to defend themselves. It is felt by many people that Ukraine made a wrong move in 1994 when she decided to not keep her Soviet-era nuclear weapons in response to the international assurances — including Russian and American security assurances. These weapons could possibly have prevented Moscow from striking Ukraine.
Ukraine’s predicament is likely to turn countries such as Japan, South Korea, Iran and many more towards obtaining nuclear weapons in the same way as North Korea, Israel, India and Pakistan did to go nuclear. With the non-proliferation efforts and International security at stake following the Ukraine war, the peacekeeping agenda of the UN has gone haywire.
On the contrary, the peaceful end of the ongoing war —threatening to engulf the entire world in a nuclear catastrophe— would have reassured the non-nuclear/ weaker states that they are in a safer position. And that they must largely focus on their social sector, without even thinking of having nukes.
It is no wonder that the expenses on military have gone up every year since 2014 and ended up as high as $2.1 trillion in 2021, the highest from the stated time. Interestingly, the US, China, Russia, India and the United Kingdom are the largest spenders. They shared 62 percent of the total global defense expenditures.
This rise in the defense expenditures badly hits the spending on social security, education and healthcare. Low or insufficient funds to these vital sectors proves a breeding ground for several ills and issues which push masses into poverty and backwardness, in particular in the developing countries riddled with growing population, unchecked corruption , badly educated generations and destructive conflicts.
History stands witness that reckless wars have brought nothing except massive devastation to the target state and tremendous loss in terms of moral standing, credibility and power to the one attacking it. Is not Ukraine war heading towards the same fate? As of today, Russia has managed to wreck havoc in Ukraine which is yet to realize that its decision to enter the war and not back down, is bringing it nothing except massive destruction.
It is high time Ukraine ends the war—at least for the sake of its people; Russia too must pull out, allowing Ukrainians to resume normal life.
(The Author is RK Columnist and Teacher by Profession. He can be reached on: [email protected])
Box: Russia’s decision to invade neighboring Ukraine —in spite of the two countries sharing history and culture — indicates that the global system is riddled with flaws. The powerful smoothly rise against the powerless, leading the latter to seek nuclear weapons as a deterrent to defend themselves
