Pakistan’s Election, India’s Concern

Now that the elections results are out in Pakistan and people have given their verdict. The verdict is fractured and indecisive. It clearly underlines the socio-cultural and political fault lines present in Pakistan that have got reflected in the election results. The re-emergence of the former Prime Minister of Pakistan, Nawaz Sharief with the army support for his revival was being watched keenly by political observers. The way his party PML-N has performed in the elections makes it clear that his following is restricted to the Punjab belt. He has not been able to create much space for himself. As far as the Zardari-Bhutto PPP is concerned, it too has failed to prove its pan-Pakistan presence and following. Its presence and impact may have been witnessed in its traditional turf of Sindh but it has failed to emerge as the national alternative for Pakistan to govern on its own. Bhilawal Bhutto Zardari has failed to attract the young voters in Pakistan.44% of the Pakistani electorate is under 35 years of age. He has not cashed on that. On the broader scale both these political formations that once claimed to be the stakeholders for the national government have been reduced to the regional satraps having a limited constituency. On the other hand, Imran Khan and his PTI have emerged stronger. He was not allowed to use the election symbol and was put behind bars. It prompted his candidates to contest as independents. And this time there have been independent candidates that outnumber those who have contested from well designated parties with registered symbols. In spite of that they have done well and won. PTI has emerged as a force to reckon with. There was a complete effort to corner Imran Khan and his PTI but this has benefited him. He has emerged stronger. His popularity chart is buoyant. So in such a situation things are uncertain when it comes to the formation of the government. Though Bhilawal Bhutto Zardari has given up his party’s claim on the Prime Ministership and Nawaz Sharief of PML-N has nominated his brother Shahbaz Sharief for the post. Will this experiment succeed? That is a million dollar question. It needs a bit of analysis. Imran Khan who was introduced in the polity of Pakistan an army proxy. He did not last long. As is the fate in Pakistan his chair was also pulled down by the army. It has been political tradition of Pakistan that every political dispensation is created and destroyed by its army. It happened with Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and led to the emergence Gen. Zia ul Haq as the dictator. Nawaz Sharief too was exiled and targeted by Gen. Pervez Musharraf and list goes on in the history of Pakistan. This time again the army has orchestrated the drama of elections. It had hoped that Nawaz Sharief as their proxy candidate will be a game changer. But it has not worked. Pakistani electorate have delivered a fractured and indecisive mandate. Making things go bad to worse. This election results have underlined that Pakistan is a divvied society. Imran Khan may have proved his national presence but his political critical mass is still located in the Pathan belt. Nawaz Sharief is holding sway in Punjabi speaking areas and Bhutto-Zardari PPP is rooted in Sindh. This clearly reveals that Pakistan is at cross roads. Pakistan Army that claims it acts as a glue to hold the nation together has emerged as a balkanising and feudal force. Eating the vitals of Pakistan. It has emerged as the divider- in- chief destroying the economy and political stability of Pakistan. Besides it has created sectarian fault lines that are now staring Pakistan in the eye. So this election will surely pose serious challenge to Pakistan’s political stability. In order to divert the attention from the socio-political turmoil, Pakistani Army is bound to use the traditional stratagem of diverting the attention from it towards Jammu and Kashmir and use the war cries to unify its people. In turn keeping its terrorist networks well-oiled and run by mercenaries so that it can maintain the plausible deniability; when it comes to supporting terrorism to destabilize India. In the coming months snow will also start melting and this will allow Pakistani Army and ISI to make concerted efforts for making terrorist infiltrations into Jammu and Kashmir. As such India must keep its vigil at its best to neutralize any nefarious designs of Pakistan. Those who advocate that India must engage with Pakistan and resume talks must be made see the reason. That has India to talk to Pakistani Army proxies who have no legs to stand or the Pakistani Army itself that is orchestrating undeclared war against India from more than three decades in Jammu and Kashmir with its un-uniformed military formations called as terrorists or paid mercenaries? Security grid in Jammu and Kashmir has to be tightened and borders kept on high alert to thwart any act of Pakistan to deflect attention from its domestic destabilization.