Srinagar, Dec 30: The unexpected heavy snowfall in Kashmir on December 27 has cast doubt on the weather prediction models used in the Valley. The Meteorological Department’s forecast, which had predicted light snowfall, was far from accurate as the region experienced the season’s first major snowstorm.
In the wake of the inaccurate prediction, the MeT department is facing sharp criticism and has now initiated an internal review to identify potential flaws in its forecasting models.
Speaking to Rising Kashmir, Director MeT Srinagar, Dr Mukhtar Ahmed said that the department had predicted light snowfall in Kashmir plains and moderate in upper reaches. “Similarly, we had forecast rains in Jammu plains,” he said. Dr Mukhar said not a single global weather model and the models used by Indian Meteorological Department had predicted heavy snowfall in Kashmir.
“Even though our prediction for snowfall in Chenab valley proved accurate, in Kashmir our models couldn’t capture the heavy snowfall (on December 27),” he said. Dr Mukhar, however, said the MeT department will trace the possible lacunae in the weather system. “We will examine whether there are any loopholes in the weather models,” he said. “One thing has once again proved that predications can never be 100 percent accurate.”
Farooq Ahmed, a scientist at the MeT Srinagar, elaborated on the unexpected weather patterns. He explained that a weak western disturbance, which was further strengthened by moisture from the Arabian Sea, resulted in the heavy snowfall across the Valley.
“Weather models depend on resolution. The higher the resolution, the more accurate the predictions,” he noted. Farooq assured that the MeT would discuss and address any deficiencies in its models.
Independent weather forecaster Faizan Arif stressed the importance of learning from global weather systems to improve forecasting. He pointed out that European weather models, which are known for their accuracy, could serve as a reference for the Indian Meteorological Department. “In 2014, inaccurate weather predictions led to the deadly floods in Kashmir, when models forecast light to moderate rainfall, but the actual rainfall turned out to be much heavier,” Arif said. “In Qazigund, Anantnag district, the rainfall exceeded 700 mm, which was not predicted.”
While acknowledging that weather models can never be entirely accurate, Arif called for an upgrade to the MeT Srinagar’s forecasting capabilities. “There is an urgent need to modernise MeT Srinagar. More climate scientists and experts should be involved to ensure more accurate predictions,” he said. He also expressed concern over the department’s inability to predict heavy snowfall even six hours in advance. “Weather patterns have changed significantly due to climate change. The weather is no longer the same as it was in the 70s, 80s, or even the 90s. It is crucial to adapt to these changes by upgrading weather prediction systems,” Arif said.
