After witnessing mainly dry weather during the 40-day harsh winter period “Chillaikalan’, the Meteorological Department has forecast of light rain and snowfall at various locations from January 25-27. This spell is expected to bring relief from cold weather conditions in the Valley, officials said.
Director MeT Srinagar, Dr. Mukhtar Ahmad told Rising Kashmir that the prevailing weather conditions suggest predominantly dry weather until the 24th of January. Subsequently, from 25-27 January, there is a possibility of rain and snowfall at specific locations. Additionally, between the 28th and 30th of January, there is a potential for light rain or snow at scattered places in the region, he said.
Dr. Mukhtar said that there will be an improvement in visibility, an increase in maximum temperature, and an overall reduction in fog over the next two days in the Jammu division.
Independent Weather Forecaster Aabid Maqbool said that over the past two days, the western disturbance has consistently diminished in both intensity and distribution.
“This trend is anticipated to persist between the 25th and 28th of January, leading to reduced prospects of significant weather activity in Jammu and Kashmir during this period,” he said.
Aabid further said that despite the diminishing weather pattern, there remains a 40% chance of another western disturbance impacting the region between the 29th and 31st of January. Monitoring this potential disturbance will provide a clearer picture of any weather-related developments during that timeframe, he added.
Kashmir is in the middle of the 40-day intense winter period called ‘Chillai Kalan’ which started on December 21 with sub-zero night temperatures across the region. Kashmir is yet to witness snowfall in plains as dry spell deepens, further dipping minimum temperatures in the Himalayan region.
According to MeT data, Kashmir Valley has experienced a significant rainfall deficit, reaching 79% throughout December 2023. The weatherman suggested that this unusual weather pattern might be associated with El Nino.
El Nino is characterized by the warning of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, and its effects can extend to global weather patterns. Additionally, the absence of a robust western disturbance is cited as another factor contributing to the lack of snowfall. These disturbances typically bring moisture from the Arabian Sea, leading to snowfall in mountainous regions.
As per the MeT Department, Srinagar recorded -2.4°C, compared to -4.6°C the previous night, remaining 0.3°C below the normal for this time of the year. Qazigund registered a minimum of -3.6°C, slightly below normal by 0.3°C.
Pahalgam reported a low of -3.9°C, up from -5.4°C, with a deviation of 3.3°C above normal. Kokernag in south Kashmir recorded -1.1°C, which was 2.8°C above normal.
In north Kashmir, Kupwara town recorded -4.3°C, which is 1.2°C below normal. Gulmarg, experienced a low of -3.2°C, 4.5°C above normal.
Jammu recorded a minimum of 6.1°C, lower than the previous night’s 2.3°C, and below normal by 1.0°C for the winter capital of J&K.
Other locations reported minimum temperatures as follows: Banihal -0.44°C, Batote 3.0°C, and Bhaderwah 1.0°C.
A traffic police official said that there was a slowdown on the Srinagar-Jammu highway during the past 24 hours due to sluggish movement on NH-44 due to vehicle breakdowns and poor surface conditions.
He said on Thursday, contingent upon fair weather and favorable road conditions, both Light Motor Vehicles (LMVs) and Heavy Motor Vehicles (HMVs) would be permitted from both sides on the Jammu-Srinagar National Highway (NH-44). Commuters were urged to adhere to lane discipline.
Additionally, vehicular movement on the Srinagar-Sonamarg-Gumri road would be permitted from both directions—Srinagar to Kargil and vice versa.
Simultaneously, vehicular movement on the Mughal road will be permitted from both directions—Poonch to Shopian and vice versa. Vehicles would be allowed from Behramgalla (Buffliaz) and Herpora (Shopian) between 1000 hrs and 1500 hrs, pending a green signal from road agencies.
