TFR remains below replacement level despite increase
Mansoor Peer
Srinagar, Jun 5: Jammu and Kashmir has recorded a notable increase in its Total Fertility Rate (TFR) after years of decline, according to the National Family Health Survey-6 (NFHS-6) 2023-24.
However, the UT continues to remain below the replacement fertility
level, reflecting an overall trend of low fertility.
The survey shows that the TFR in Jammu and Kashmir has risen from 1.4 children per woman in NFHS-5 (2019-21) to 1.8 children per woman in NFHS-6 (2023-24), marking an increase of 0.4 children per woman during the period.
The TFR is a key demographic indicator that estimates the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her reproductive years.
While the increase signals a reversal of the declining trend observed over the past decade, the current TFR remains significantly below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, the level required for a population to replace itself from one generation to the next without migration.
The latest figures mark a turnaround from the trend recorded in previous surveys. According to the Jammu and Kashmir Economic Survey 2024-25, the TFR stood at 1.6 in NFHS-4 (2015-16) before declining to 1.4 in NFHS-5 (2019-21).
The rise to 1.8 in NFHS-6 indicates that women in the Union Territory are, on average, having more children than they were during the previous survey period.
Despite the increase, experts say Jammu and Kashmir continues to experience low fertility compared to national replacement requirements.
A senior gynaecologist at Government Medical College (GMC) Srinagar said fertility trends are undergoing significant changes across India and many parts of the world.
“Fertility rates are declining in several states as well as globally. Changes in lifestyle, delayed marriages, stress and health-related factors are increasingly influencing reproductive outcomes,” she said.
The expert noted that delayed marriages, high stress levels, sedentary lifestyles, and hormonal disorders are among the factors affecting fertility among both men and women.
“Reproductive health is closely linked to overall health. Healthy eating habits, regular physical activity and effective stress management can positively influence fertility and general well-being,” she said.
Government data indicates that women in Jammu and Kashmir marry at an average age of 26 years, the highest in the country, compared to the national average of 22.1 years.
Health experts believe that delayed marriages reduce the reproductive window and contribute to lower fertility levels.
Experts also point to rapid urbanisation, rising living costs and changing family structures as factors influencing reproductive decisions. Increasing migration to urban centres for employment has resulted in smaller family units, with many young couples lacking the support systems traditionally provided by extended families.
Demographers say the increase in fertility recorded in NFHS-6 warrants closer examination to understand whether it represents a temporary shift following the pandemic period or the beginning of a longer-term demographic trend.