COUNTING KASHMIR’S PROGRESS
The season of grief is calendar-less
It is always the eve of extinction.
(Aga Shahid Ali)
Spring in Kashmir arrives cloaked in contradictions. The flowers bloom over Kashmir’s slopes, even as the scent of gunpowder lingers from the recent massacre of innocence. The houseboat owners count empty beds, their ledgers bleeding red. A shopkeeper in Srinagar holding a newspaper in his deserted shop, the headlines beneath screaming of another massacre. “This is our season,” an old man mutters, “when the snow melts to show what was buried.” Here, every petal carries the weight of a bullet; every spring is stalked by the ghosts of winters past. The land knows two harvests: one of apples, one of funerals. And the calendar? It has only three seasons—blossoms, bullets, and blood.
The ledger of loss grows heavier each year. In Pahalgam, where ponies once carried honeymooners through pine forests, their bells now jingle for absent tourists. Much like its orchards, Kashmir’s economy has learned to thrive under the shadows of AK47. But this time the story seems different.
Kashmir’s tourism sector, which saw a record 3.5 million visitors in 2024—marking a triumphant rebound from the pandemic slump—now faces a brutal reckoning. The recent terrorist attack on tourists in Pahalgam has sent shockwaves through the valley’s economy. Hotel bookings have plummeted by 40% in the weeks since the massacre, according to trade unions, with cancellations outpacing new reservations.
The surge in arrivals, once hailed as proof of ‘normalcy,’ now feels like a cruel illusion; the same houseboat owners who celebrated full occupancy last season stare at deserted docks, their optimism as fragile as the saffron blooms that wilt under the weight of renewed fear. The government’s glossy brochures still advertise ‘Paradise on Earth,’ but the numbers tell a darker story: for every bullet fired, another season of progress unravels.
In Jammu and Kashmir’s economy, few sectors feel tourism’s impact as immediately as the hotel industry. Official figures from the 2024-25 Economic Survey reveal that hotels contribute approximately Rs 2,700 crore annually to the region’s Gross State Value Added—a vital economic engine that powers far more than just hospitality employment.
This financial ripple effect sustains entire ecosystems: local farmers supplying fresh produce to hotel kitchens, artisans crafting traditional handicrafts for guest shops, and transport operators ferrying visitors across the valley. When tourist footfall declines, the shockwaves spread through markets, farms and households—proving that in Kashmir, an empty hotel room represents more than lost revenue; it’s a broken link in a delicate economic chain.
The tourism sector remains a vital economic pillar for the region, supporting countless livelihoods across the hospitality and service industries. The Pahalgam terror attack is likely to trigger a dramatic shift in India’s domestic travel patterns in 2025.
The latest Economic Survey of Jammu and Kashmir (2024-25) reveals a remarkable tourism recovery, with visitor numbers quadrupling since 2021. Official data shows tourist arrivals grew from just 6.64 lakh domestic visitors in 2021 to over 34.54 lakh in 2024, marking a 420% increase that outpaced most Himalayan states’ post-pandemic recovery rates. However, the massacre could reverse this trend.
The terrorist attack has instilled deep fear among religious tourists, who form a significant portion of Kashmir’s domestic footfall. The Amarnath Yatra, which saw 4.5 lakh pilgrims in 2023, could witness a 40-50% drop in 2024. Families are likely to avoid volatile regions, opting instead for safer Himalayan destinations like Himachal’s Shimla-Manali circuit or Uttarakhand’s Char Dham.
(The Table Is Taken From The Times Of India)
The data shows Himachal’s domestic tourism grew from 56.32 lakh (2021) to 1.8 crore (2024), while foreign arrivals surged from 5,000 to 83,000 in the same period. Post-Pahalgam, travel agencies report a 20-30% spike in inquiries for Himachal packages, with families rerouting trips originally planned for Kashmir. Hoteliers fear Rs 800-1,000 crore revenue hit if footfall drops to 2021 levels.
The Pahalgam attack has not just shattered lives but also Kashmir’s tourism recovery narrative. While Himachal will benefit short term, India’s broader travel economy faces a destabilizing blow—one that could reshape regional tourism for years.
Officials insist Kashmir is ‘open for business,’ but the math tells another story. Every bullet fired doesn’t just claim lives—it steals a season of growth. Until the roots of terrorism are addressed, Kashmir’s calendar will keep turning between blossoms and bullets, with no harvest in sight.
In Kashmir’s ledger, the columns for blood and blossoms never balance.
(Author is a scholar, writer, and literary critic specializing in English Literature. He holds an MPhil on the poetry of Agha Shahid Ali and PhD on the exodus of Kashmiri Pandits, exploring themes of memory, displacement, and identity. Feedback: Email: [email protected])
