A major shift in the voting pattern is being witnessed in Kashmir Valley. Polling percentage is breaking previous records. An unprecedented number of women, relatives of active militants and even cadres of the banned Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) are turning up to cast their votes. What has changed or not changed in Kashmir is evident from a cursory look at happenings.
“As hundreds of millions of Indians take part in the largest democratic election in the world, residents of the northern province of Kashmir are engaging in what appears to be a historic boycott of the vote. … For the residents of Kashmir who find themselves trapped in the middle of a decades long rivalry between India and neighboring Pakistan, their lives are unlikely to change regardless of the election’s outcome”, wrote Murtaza Hussain in an article in the Intercept on April 29, 2019.
On May 16, 2024 The Indian Express published an article by Bashaarat Masood posing a question in its headline asking, “Will Kashmir cross the 50% voting mark?”
Remember it was soon after polling in Srinagar Parliamentary Constituency (PC) on 13th May of 2024. Parties and observers expected a Srinagar turnout effect as that constituency saw a record voter turnout of around 38%. They said that Baramulla and Anantnag-Rajouri seats traditionally had higher polling than Srinagar. Baramulla PC that went to polls on May 20, 2024 did not disappoint as final turnout worked out to be around 60 per cent.
Anantnag-Rajouri PC that will go to polls on May 25 is also expected to have a high voter turnout, because of both its history and various high profile candidates in the fray raising stakes for political parties they belong to. What will happen and who will win will be known in due course of time. For now there is a race to interpret the high voter turnout in different ways according to the inclination and allegiance of the exponent.
What does this increased voter turnout actually mean? To begin with one has to remember that this Parliament Election did not witness any Boycott Call from any side within or outside Kashmir. These calls used to be a norm till recent times. Also images were beamed through media showing Former district Amir of banned Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI), Ghulam Qadir Wani, casting his vote claiming that “JeI has never given a poll boycott call and always believed in resolving issues democratically”.
Most of the left leaning commentators and traditional dynastic parties and their echo system would like us to believe that they are seeing high-voltage contests and rise in voter turnout as “a vote against abrogation” of discriminatory Article 370 in August 2019.
Union Home Minister Amit Shah termed the voting as “the greatest testament to the rightness of the decision” to revoke Article 370. There are a large number of longstanding observers of Kashmir politics who subscribe to this view.
Reflection of Delusion
All those who maintain that Kashmiri voters came out to vote in large numbers are venting their restrained feelings against historic decisions taken on August 5, 2019 refuse to recognize their incongruous assessment. If this line of argument is accepted for a moment, how will they explain the absence of 62 per cent voters of Srinagar PC not expressing themselves? Shall their refusal to exercise their Right to franchise as:
- Happy with the decision taken on August 5, 2019,
- Dejected with available choices in the form of contesting candidates and parties.
- Indifferent to the entire process.
Sensing perhaps the fallacy of anger argument Dr. Farooq Abdullah the JKNC chief said in a statement, “I expected the percentage to be 70 per cent. I don’t know the reason why it was so low. People are so eager to express themselves and send their representatives to the Parliament.”
Expressing his concern He changed the topic from anger to “children are taking drugs” saying an entire generation was in danger. No one can have second opinion about the drug menace. But the question is about voter turnout.
Election as an Opportunity
Kashmir, let us not forget, has been scarred by cycles of terrorist violence, death, destruction and ethnic cleansing. Secessionist and pro-Pakistan elements were always present in Kashmir society as well as the political milieu. But after the introduction of Gun-culture it was just a one sided affair. Fear was prevalent in every sphere of human activity. Governance was a huge casualty. Socio-political activity was restricted and largely subdued.
Common people were reluctant to participate in any political activity. Voter participation in elections was appallingly low. Political rallies and election campaigning also used to be passive and submissive. The small number of people who dared to join political activity would cover their faces on sighting a camera.
Lok Sabha Election 2024 has so far been diametrically opposite in this regard. Political parties are engaged in highly intense campaigning running into late night hours. People who are joining these rallies are more open, enthusiastic and excited. Numbers are larger and include a fairly huge number of women participants. The inhibition to face cameras has receded considerably.
Enthusiastic Displaced Community
This Lok Sabha Election 2024 under progress to elect 18th Lok Sabha has also seen an unforeseen participation of the Displaced Community from Kashmir valley. Perhaps for the first time displaced voters in Jammu joined election for their native constituencies with intense passion, perseverance and a lot of hope. There were lines at special polling stations from early mornings on polling days in scorching heat where temperatures had crossed 40 degree Celsius. It marks a welcome departure from the era of indifference and irrelevance.
This is one major step in the direction of reintegration of the Displaced Community with the land of their ancestors. In that sense this election can prove a milestone for the return and rehabilitation process.
Result of the election will be known on 4th June 2024 and the blessed successful candidates will get an opportunity to represent their constituencies in the new Parliament. But this election and its outcome will have a long term impact on Jammu Kashmir and the whole of India. For now it is to wait and watch and also to pray for an outcome that will be beneficial for the entire population and future generations.
(Author GL Raina @Ajey Bharti is Former Member of Legislative Council of Jammu Kashmir and Spokesperson of BJP JK UT)
