India’s Increasing Global Influence

There was incredulity in some Western circles around the footage of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi warmly greeting President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on 8 July. How could Modi bear-hug Putin, and talk about their country’s trade, while the Russian military continued to brutally assault its neighbour, Ukraine? PM Modi’s words in Moscow, that ‘war cannot solve problems’, and that a solution ‘cannot be found on the battlefield’, was consistent with India’s position ever since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began. India’s position deserves further reflection in light of new realities. Back in February 2022, Modi spoke to both Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky by phone. According to the official read-out of the conversation, Modi said told Putin that, “the differences between Russia and the NATO group can only be resolved through honest and sincere dialogue.” Since 2022, as Russia’s war in Ukraine has persisted, numerous other non-Western governments have taken their own stances advocating dialogue to end the war, from Indonesia to Brazil and South Africa. In fact, around the wider world, this is the far more common position than any of the alternatives. Now, we are at the cusp of a moment when the United States (US) itself—entirely for its own domestic political reasons—could reach a similar official position on ending the Russia–Ukraine war. With a Trump victory now far more likely in November’s US presidential election, following his brush with death after a narrow escape from an assassin’s bullet at a speech in Pennsylvania, the US could move towards settling the Russia–Ukraine war by forcing a deal onto Ukraine if Trump wins the election. For their own reasons that relate to appeasing their domestic voter base, Trump and his newly-announced Republican running-mate, JD Vance, do not favour continually funding Ukraine’s defensive war against the Russian invasion. Hence, Ukraine may soon be forced into a compromise with Russia by a returning Trump presidency. If this happens, India and will have an opportunity to make good on its words and lend what support it can to ending the Russia–Ukraine war. Although India is a continent away, its status as a major trading partner with Russia means that Indian diplomacy could play its own stabilising role through its channels to Moscow; for instance, by encouraging Putin’s adherence to whatever peace deal emerges in Ukraine. And what a turn-around this would be. Imagine this scenario: A war that erupted in Eastern Europe is ended through a grubby peace deal that is primarily driven by change of government in the US. But it is a deal that is also welcomed by and supported around the world, including by countries that have long-since advocated for such an end to this war, and that have their own strong channels to Moscow. Ukraine will be the big loser, ceding territory—including a great deal of its coastline—to occupying Russian forces. The European powers that have spoken so strongly and uncompromisingly of supporting Zelensky’s aspiration for Ukraine to be guarded by the West, and indeed to formally join the West through Ukraine gaining membership of the EU and NATO, will be forced to pick up the slack. The United Kingdom, France, Poland and other governments will become Ukraine’s main guarantors in such an event, as major world powers from the US to India prioritise an end to the fighting. This scenario now seems possible—and there is much more significance to it than initially meets the eye. Its lessons will extend far beyond the Russia–Ukraine war. The manner of this war’s possible end (for now, if Trump returns to power) could offer a foretaste of the changing role of the Western countries in world affairs for decades to come. As this author has written in his new book, Westlessness: The Great Global Rebalancing (Hodder & Stoughton, July 2024), the West remains a major pillar in world affairs. But the political character of ‘the West’ is changing in front of our very eyes. Populists in the US but also in some European countries take ‘nation-first’ positions. In turn, these populists will influence Western foreign policies. Populists like Trump (and also, the Hungarian President Viktor Orban) are well known for de-prioritising the ‘world policing’ roles that the West under US leadership become known for after the Cold War. Moreover, the world is experiencing the concurrent rise of major non-Western countries to greater heights of economic prosperity and strategic autonomy. Collectively, these developments are decisively rewiring world affairs. Politics is not the only driver of these changes. Trends in geoeconomics, in demography, and many other factors besides—all contribute to a rebalanced world, in which the West remains ever-present but ever-less united behind the US, and no longer singularly dominant. The outcome, which will reveal itself in the coming decades, will see the world order radically rebalanced.