Global Uncertainty

Conflict is shaping the new contours of global politics and redefining the new strategic goal posts. War is the new normal in the present scenario whether it is the East or the West. The recent Israel-Iran conflict that included the brazen involvement of the United States(US) shows that we are living in times that are volatile. When the Russia-Ukraine war is still going on, the re-emergence of the Israel-Iran conflict must make world leaders think over it. As it has disrupted West Asia and the Middle East both politically and economically. If this conflict is not stopped at the earliest then it can have an adverse impact on the global fuel prices that will in turn lead to overall inflation. For India things will surely end in dire straits as Iran’s policy of closing the Strait of Hormuz will lead to fuel deficit. Economics aside, there is every probability of emergence desperation among the smaller nations to acquire the nuclear weapons as the US indulgence to obliterate Iran’s nuclear programme will be seen as a threat to alter the national boundaries. Moreover, a situation is emerging in which the US is being regarded as the hegemon that wants to divide the world into blocs. President Trump has proved that he is unpredictable and can swing in any direction as he is guided by whims and fancies that have no relation to ethical decision making and governance. When he assumed the office for the second time he was categorical that he doesn’t want to drag the US into unwanted wars that are proving a burden for its taxpayers. To substantiate his policy he started the withdrawal of troops from the war zones. But now his intervention in the Israel-Iran conflict and indulging in bombing the nuclear facilities in Iran raises doubts and questions about the integrity of his policies. What has added to this uncertainty is a recent report that has emerged from the US claiming that even after the devastating American bombing of Iran; its nuclear facilities are intact. The US administration has denied it by saying that it has obliterated the Iranian nuclear assets. Israeli and the US attacks have caused damage to the Iranian infrastructure at the sites that were supposed to have bombs but the Iranian expertise to develop bombs that is still intact has not been affected. This raises a question: If the Israel-US attack has not been able to destroy the know-how meant to develop nuclear weapons then what has been the outcome of this targeted attack on Iran? There is only one answer that comes to mind and that is Israel has at least managed to delay Iran’s speed of reaching the next stage of enriched uranium development for the nuclear bomb. One thing is clear that we have entered an era where there is no dependence on conventional warfare but the thrust is on developing the pre-emptive capabilities and nuclear stockpile. We have witnessed in the recent case of India-Pakistan conflict in the aftermath of the Pahalgam carnage that the world war concerned about the nuclear war. Here again the US tried to grind its axe and take the credit but India denied any role being played by it. World is entering into an era where we are being governed by uncertainty and the new power equations are in the process of emergence.