FRAGRANCE OF IDEAS
The year 2023 will be remembered as the year of India -that is Bharat, for various reasons. This year also witnessed elections to the legislative assemblies of five states namely, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chatisgarh, Telengana and Mizoram. Every party in the fray had their own calculations keeping in view their work, aspirations and future course of action. However, the results are out and have brought joy and sorrow both along with. The winners are obviously happy and the losers feel unhappy because the results aren’t as per their expectations. But, by and large, this time no major political party has blamed the EVMs for their defeat. All of them are slowly and steadily reconciling to the realities of the results.
The elections were considered as very important since they would express the mood of the nation in context of the general elections due next year. As such a large number of political activists and analysts categorized these elections as semi-finals before the May-2024 finals. The results have come as a shock for the opposition and particularly the Congress party, who had pinned high hopes in regard to the outcome of the elections. BJP on the other hand has shown exemplary results with three states going to its kitty and also making major advances in the other two states as well. Thus these election results have in a sense set the agenda for the Lok Sabha elections.
Contrary to the opinion polls and exit-polls, usually conducted by the media channels, the “exact-polls” have brought the ground realities out. Exit-polls are like the ‘umpire-call’ decision in the game of cricket when the umpiring decisions on the field are referred to the third umpire under Division Review System (DRS). The actual results have once again established the fact that the voters have the ultimate acumen to take a decision and can’t be influenced by the negative propaganda and the freebies offered to them by the people in business and the vested interests. It is important to have an objective analysis of the results including the arithmetic of the polls in order to arrive at a convincing conclusion.
In MP, where the BJP is already in the government, it won a large majority with 163 seats in an assembly of 230 seats. This is obviously an overwhelming 2/3rd majority for the BJP in the house. While it got 49% of the total votes, it has also gained a whooping 54 additional seats. On the other hand, Congress got 40% of the votes with a figure of 66 seats thus losing 48 seats as compared to the last elections, which is surely a big loss for the party in MP.
In Chhattisgarh where Congress was already in power, the party lost a huge ground to the BJP. In a virtual straight fight for 90 seats of the assembly, Congress got 35 seats this time, losing 33 seats, with a vote share of 42%. BJP received 46% of the popular votes and increased its tally to 54 seats with a formidable increase of 39 seats. BJP is back in power in this state after a gap of five years.
Rajasthan is a fit study-case for political activists, Psychologist, analysts and other political pundits. In this state, that is the largest state of India geographically, Congress which was in power got 40% of votes thereby winning 69 seats but lost 30 seats as compared to 2018. The BJP got 115 seats in a house of 200 seats (119 went to polls) with an increase of overwhelmingly 42 seats. It got 2% votes more than the Congress ie. 42% and a large number of seats in the state witnessed multi-cornered contests due to the independents and other candidates. Eight independent candidates, mostly the rebels of BJP and Congress, won the elections. The BHRT also won 3 seats. This state is a classic example of electing alternate governments every time. But what needs to be understood here is as to how even a small percentage of vote-shift could affect the results in such a politically volatile state.
Telengana is the gateway to the south politically, as per some self-appointed election experts. In such a gateway, where Congress was out of power for the last two terms ever since Telengana came into being, it has achieved success that has potential to overshadow their frustration in the other three states. Here Congress got 39% of total votes ensuring them 64 seats in a house of 120 (119 went to polls). They achieved a major success in the context that it increased its number by 45 seats. BHRS which was in power in the state lost 49 seats as compared to 2018 and got only 39 seats with a 37% vote percentage. AIMIM which contested 9 seats only in a tacit understanding with BHRS maintained its number of 7 seats with a 2% share in the total votes. BJP jumped from 7% vote share to 14% with an increase of 7 seats thereby winning 8 seats in the state for the first time.
Mizoram also saw the government run by MNF out which could manage to win only 10 seats thereby losing 17 seats in a house of 40. The ZPM (Zoram People’s Movement) with a stunning 26 seats increase got 27 seats to run the show henceforth. Congress which had 4 seats in the assembly got reduced to 1 and BJP that had one seat only doubled its strength to two in the new Assembly.
With these showings, one thing has certainly been established beyond doubt, and that is the large endorsement of the Modi phenomenon in the socio-political spectrum of the nation. BJP’s strategy this time was double-pronged, aimed at to achieve two targets at one and the same time. In addition to winning the state elections, it seriously meant to set the agenda for the ensuing Lok Sabha elections due in May next year. The whole campaigning was focused on PM Narendra Modi and the terms like Modi-guarantee, ‘Modi hai to mumkin hai’, Double-engine sarkar etc were fully in vogue catching the attention and imagination of the people everywhere. The negative campaign of the opposition, calling Modi names, venomous attack on Sanatan and corruption in Congress ruled states played their role in favour of the BJP.
The victory of BJP has a great meaning; it has indications of a clear sweep of BJP-NDA in the 2024 general elections at an all-India level. NDA has its rule in more than half of the states in the country now. In desperation, the opposition and particularly the Congress with hands in glove with some liberal-leftist media lobbies have started their chorus of defining the results as a ‘North-South divide’. This is going to terribly backfire upon them in the course of events. They love to ignore that the BJP has doubled its vote share in Telengana this time and is in a position to double its seat share in the Lok Sabha elections as well. BJP has currently 4 MPs from Telengana. It garnered more than 19% votes in the last LS elections there. Since Lok Sabha elections and Assembly elections have different meanings altogether, BJP in an eventuality of taking the vote share from 19% to 25 % will ensure not less than 8 seats in their favour in a state that returns 17 MPs to the Lok Sabha. The Modi phenomenon is well capable to take care of the fluctuating voters therein.
Next, let us also focus on the issues that are going to affect the mood of the nation in due course of time hitherto. The decision in regard to the Article 370 issue by the Supreme Court of India is due anytime now, Ram Mandir in Ayodhya is to be inaugurated in January next year, the central budget will be tabled and passed in February-March 2024, the announcement by the government in regard to the achievement of four-trillion dollar economy may also be coming, the stock markets are expected to rise high in an unprecedented manner perpetually post results and developments at a geo-political level enhancing India’s image are also now an integral part of the issues affecting people’s sentiment and mood. These issues in addition will also have an impact on the psyche of the fluctuating and undecided voters.
It is assumed, keeping in view the recent results and the situation of the opposition in the country that BJP on its own might touch 40% vote level in 2024 and along with its allies it may even touch 50% vote share. In such an eventually, 400- seats target doesn’t only seem a possibility for the NDA but it might also decimate the Congress at an all-India level. The slogans like “Is bar-char sav par” has started doing the rounds and PM Modi has already initiated the campaign for 2024 general elections right on the day when the BJP was celebrating its victory at its headquarters in New Delhi. The writing is on the wall. Frankly speaking, for the first time the opposition must be reconciling to the reality which is stark and stern for them. And the reality is that they have no alternative either to Modi or to BJP or to their agenda……!
(The author is a senior BJP and KP leader, author and columnist and can be reached at [email protected])
