Historicity of Assembly Election 2024 has been discussed in many ways by commentators and analysts. How significant these elections are going to prove for Jammu and Kashmir in the long term also needs thorough examination. There is a strong possibility that this election can prove to be the Black Swan event (BSE) in the politics of the region. An event -as the BSE is defined- that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.
Even a cursory look at results and performance of major players reveals that the traditional ruling elite- the Gupkar alliance, an equivalent of Lutyens’ Delhi has been shaken. They may have retained power for now but this will be only for a short time, shorter than expected. Cracks in the ruling elite are different this time. Stakeholders from the excluded sections of society are visibly equipped to replace the minority segments that controlled reins of power till now.
The power elite has been a closely-knit group living on Gupkar Road and nearby localities. Entry to this exclusive club was/is always monitored. Outsiders are just not welcomed and this class is all about exclusion and hierarchy and it has … made rules that the rest ….followed- using words borrowed from Ranjana Sengupta from Delhi Metropolitan: The Making of an Unlikely City (2008):
Grudging Alliance
National Conference president Dr. Farooq Abdullah in February 2024 declared the party’s decision to go solo in the then upcoming parliamentary elections. He was categorical in stating that the “National Conference would contest the polls on its merit without entering into any alliance with other political parties”.
However hours after “categorical” assertions by Dr. Farooq, his son & Vice President, Omar Abdullah said the NC will remain part of INDI Alliance and claimed that his party was in talks with the Congress for three of six Lok Sabha seats in Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh. They fought the Lok Sabha Election as INDI Alliance.
NC president Dr Farooq Abdullah reasserted in August in Doda that his party will fight Assembly elections on its own. Interacting with media persons he ruled out any alliance with other political parties. “NC will stand on its own feet and contest from all 90 Assembly seats independently,” he said.
Congress leadership; Rahul Gandhi, the Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, and Mallikarjun Kharge, the president of the Congress, rushed to Abdullah’s residence in Srinagar on 22nd August. There are different insider stories on these talks from both sides.
However, National Conference president Farooq Abdullah announced, “We had a good meeting, in a cordial atmosphere. The alliance is on track and, God willing, it will run smoothly. The alliance is final. It will be signed this evening and the alliance is on all 90 seats.”
This was before Pakistan’s defence minister Khwaja Asif declared that the Congress party, National Conference party, and Pakistan are all on the same page when it comes to restoring Article 370 and 35A in Jammu and Kashmir.
Congress predicament
Developments within the Congress party during the ten days from 12th to 22nd of August 2024 are revealing. Hours after the announcement of the Assembly Election the Congress party appointed Tariq Hameed Karra as the President of Pradesh Congress Committee replacing Vikar Rasool Wani.
Alleging a conspiracy behind his removal as PCC Chief Vikar Rasool wani said, “I want to tell you clearly that several forces have been working behind the scenes to ensure that Vikar Rasool doesn’t become CM of J&K,” Rasool claimed, adding, biases related to his identity as a Gujjar or Pahadi were influencing these actions.
“Few people from across the tunnel consider us either Paharis or Gujjars and don’t treat us equally,” he added.
NC vice president Omar Abdullah while campaigning for his party candidate in Banihal criticised Wani, for his remarks against the NC and stated that “He (Vikar Rasool) was removed from the post of PCC chief immediately after the sounding of election bugle in J&K as his party did not find him worthy for that position.” “This person opened a front against us and he is himself responsible for it.”
Omar Abdullah on the 10th of September 2024 said that his “party doesn’t gain much in terms of seats by stitching an alliance with the Congress party for the upcoming assembly polls in the Union Territory”. The alliance, he said, “was more about perception than numbers”.
Discernible extinction
The grand old party has been reduced to such an appalling state that everyone including its alliance partners berates it without remorse. Political field is full of uncertainties, for sure. But the Congress Party is on steady decline. There is no visible hope of revival for the party in near future. Jammu & Kashmir is no different.
Recently held elections in the Union Territory have established that the party is heading almost towards extermination. In Both general elections to 18th Lok Sabha in May-June 2024 and recent Legislative Assembly election performance of the party is dismal to say the least.
Though in J&K the party was officially constituted in 1965 yet it was a major player in the state from the very beginning. Party and the government of India led by first Prime Minister Jawahar Lal Nehru was active behind the National Conference and managed its ascend to the office. The Congress remained a leading political party in Jammu Kashmir for quite a long time. Its decline was however noticeable after 1996 and is almost irreversible now.
After the results of the Assembly election were out on October 8, 2024, leaders of Congress party including Rahul Gandhi and Congress President Shree Mallikarjun Kharge expressed their gratitude to the people of Jammu and Kashmir for the impressive victory of the Congress-NC alliance.
But soon after swearing in of Omar Abdullah as the Chief Minister of the JK-UT on 16th of October, the Congress party announced its decision of not joining the council of Ministers. Social media platforms are abuzz with different stories about reasons behind this decision.
But is the success of ‘alliance’ a victory for Congress also? The Party needs to introspect. Party has been virtually trounced in Jammu Kashmir, one of its strongholds before 2014. It may have won six seats, but that is being attributed to its alliance with NC. Its vote share has shrunk to less than 12%. Several of its candidates forfeited their deposit. Total number of votes polled are just 6, 82 666 out of which 5, 42, 736 are from Jammu region and remaining 1, 39, 930 from Kashmir.
Congress seems to be ‘Stranded in No man’s land’.
(GL Raina is a former Member of Legislative Council of Jammu Kashmir)
