GEO POLIITCS
There is apprehension and “fear” on both sides of Atlantic among a large number of Countries. Similarly there is certainly some anxiety or uneasiness among many of the countries bordering the Indo Pacific and the Indian Ocean Rim.
NATO will certainly be facing changes at least of financial nature at the minimum. Trump was very critical of this military alliance, during his first tenure as the President.
His business instinct simply couldn’t tolerate the extremely low financial contribution of the rest of the members in comparison to the USA. Further in spite of the huge contribution the Military Bloc provided hardly any security guarantee to the USA itself.
Thus now after returning to the White House, Trump is surely going to be questioning the future of NATO as a military Bloc. Along with NATO, the Ukraine Conflict will be on Trump’s radar screen. After all the Prime basis of the entire conflict is the expansion of NATO by inclusion of Ukraine as a member.
This has naturally been resisted whole and Soul by Putin …..A drama a step forward of the Kennedy – Khrushchev Cuban Crisis of 1962. Thus in addition to the Zelensky baggage, year 2025, is also likely to witness a growing rift in the European Union camp, because of issues related to trade, Climate Change and Artificial Intelligence.
The European Union is in need of a technological breakthrough during the same time in which Trump will be gung ho in increasing the manufacturing base of the United States.
Thus Donald Trump is sure to change Washington’s approach to the Ukraine conflict. There is certainly going to be a Cease fire with an end to physical combat. Even Vice President elect J.D. Vance has clearly stated that USA needs to protect its own borders, not the Ukrainian ones.
Kiev will not be left hanging at once because the US strong politico military system certainly will want everything to continue. However the military wants the money to be headed to their budget above all, and not that of Zelensky.
Thus Zelensky will witness a gradual slow down of military aid leading to final halt. Trump administration will be diverting maximum possible resources toward restoring the American economy and manufacturing industry. All this will should be reducing the US – Russia tension to the most manageable level.
The push for American industrialization will require reshaping of policy toward China. This has the potential of initiating a new trade war with Beijing. Joe Biden in fact had carried on with Trump’s policy toward China with hardly any changes.
Israel will certainly be among Trump’s priorities. However we must remember that Netanyahu, the Israeli premier supported the Biden administration at the beginning of his term. Trump does not forget easily.
Though it will not affect a working dialogue between Washington and Tel Aviv, but Trump will demand that Israel follows US policy. He will be threatening to cut their arms assistance in case of dilly dallying.
So, one shouldn’t expect any sudden changes here. They are more likely to be about the approach. Overall Trump is a pro-Israeli politician, and may increase support for the Jewish state while trying to facilitate the settlement of the Middle Eastern conflict.
The process of normalization in that region, however, will be complex due to Trump’s anti-Iranian stance observed during his first presidential term.
The prospects of dialogue with North Korea will have to be seen as they have large number of issues. Biden’s carried out containment of North Korea and weakening it with sanctions and military pressure. Here changing tactics, Trump may try a diplomatic approach with Pyongyang.
He was the first US president to hold a top-level meeting with a North Korean leader. The relationship with China will revolve around Trade issues and at times Taiwan will pop up. Indo Pacific will be in news more because of storms and volcano eruptions rather than AUKUS or QUAD.
However the entire world will be eyeing the evolving of a new era of friendship between India and the USA. In case the Chemistry between Trump and Modi clicks then entire world will move to an era of peace and prosperity.
(Author is a retired army officer and can be reached at: [email protected])
