Bangladesh Crisis

What is happening in Bangladesh must alarm the Indian policy makers. The political and social turmoil going on in Bangladesh was long overdue. It could be gauged from the continuous targeting of the secular forces and the minorities. Religious places of the minorities in Bangladesh have been vandalised in routine. International community that includes the liberal and secular forces in India have always overlooked this genocidal attrition. The result is the present state of emergency in Bangladesh where radical forces devoid of progressive bent of mind are on the rampage. Streets are overcrowded by hooligans and rioters. India should have asserted a long back and put the put down to underline the crumbling of democracy. It was India that gave Bengalis of then East Pakistan a semblance of a nation and a progressive society in 1971 when army junta of Pakistan trampled the political mandate to the East Pakistanis to rule. They were discriminated by the radical Pakistani political dispensation that was basically an army dictatorship guided by regression. There was a split wide open between East and West Pakistan. Language became the dividing factor and Bengalis were subjected to genocide. Even the rallying cry of religion could not keep East and West Pakistan as one unit. Proving that Pakistan is not a monolith guided by religion but an artificial nation meant to get divided. India helped Mukti Bahini to save its people from rape, arson , loot and plunder and emerge as a nation in 1971.Bangha Bandhu Sheikh Mujib ur Rehman who was the unifying force to carve out the separate nation of Bangladesh sacrificed his life for Bengalis of East Bengal. Unfortunately, Bangladesh has not been able to take the progressive trajectory guided by democracy. Radicalism and genocidal attrition against minorities has made it another Pakistan. Pakistani role in spoiling the democratic apple cart of Bangladesh can’t be ruled out. It has got stuck in the fanatic quagmire from which its founding father’s retrieved it. Recently, in July 2024, protests erupted in Bangladesh after the judiciary reinstated a quota system for government jobs, overturning Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s government’s 2018 decision to abolish it. This system reserved 30 percent of jobs for families of freedom fighters and other groups, which many students argued limited merit-based opportunities. Amid high youth unemployment and economic stagnation, the protests intensified, leading to violent clashes with police and government supporters, resulting in numerous casualties and posing a significant challenge to Hasina’s administration. The protests in Bangladesh have drawn widespread international condemnation. As expected, the US has called on Bangladesh to uphold the right to peaceful protest amid on-going demonstrations against the government’s job quota system. This situation marks the first significant challenge to Hasina’s government since her re-election in January, which the US deemed not free and fair. On 3 August 2024, protesters in Bangladesh took to the streets to demand justice for over 200 people killed in last month’s student-led demonstrations against government job quotas, leading to the death of more protesters. The crisis has evolved into a nationwide civil disobedience campaign calling for Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s resignation—she has since tendered her resignation. In a significant development on 5th August Bangladesh Prime Minister has escaped to India. It seems that history is being repeated. Earlier in 1970’s her father was targeted by the fanatics in Pakistan and the paradox is that his daughter is being targeted in the nation that was meant to be the home of the persecuted East Pakistanis. Human rights organisations and Western governments, including those of the United States (US) and the United Kingdom (UK), have criticised the suppression of freedom of speech and the violent crackdown on peaceful protesters. Earlier, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina had accused the US of attempting to instigate a regime change in Bangladesh, claiming they aim to eliminate democracy and introduce an undemocratic government. Hasina’s remarks in Parliament follow heightened scrutiny from Washington regarding human rights issues under her Awami League Party. Despite the West meddling in Bangladesh’s domestic issues, any extreme steps from either side can have a detrimental impact on Bangladesh’s economy. Bangladesh’s export-oriented growth is highly dependent on exports to Western countries, so any potential sanctions or trade restrictions could significantly harm the economy. Western hegemony in Bangladesh’s RMG imports is evident through the dominant control exerted by Western countries, primarily the United States and the European Union. It is characterised mainly by Bangladesh’s market dependency, with over 80 percent of its RMG exports directed towards these Western markets. The cost advantages and substantial production capacity of Bangladeshi RMG factories drive the strategic supplier relationship with major Western clothing brands. The RMG sector, crucial to Bangladesh’s economy, significantly contributes to export earnings and employment, yet this also highlights the country’s economic dependency on Western demand, market conditions and political perceptions about Bangladesh. While Western demand plays a vital role in sustaining Bangladesh’s RMG industry, it simultaneously underscores its vulnerability to external economic pressures and ethical scrutiny. Finally, Bangladesh must focus on strategic diversification and resilience in its export and import sectors to enhance macroeconomic stability in the longer horizon. Diversifying export commodities beyond the RMG industry and expanding trading partners can reduce dependency on a single market and mitigate the risks of economic disruptions. Similarly, diversifying import sources can ensure a stable supply of essential goods and minimise vulnerability to geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions. Now India has to be cautious as radical forces and the army has taken over. India-Bangladesh borders have always been vulnerable and prone to infiltration of illegal immigrants to India. It has already made an adverse impact on West Bengal and India’s domestic politics. Indian security agencies must maintain extra watch to foil any attempts to pose the national security challenges to India. As Bangladesh is in the grip of the forces who are guided by religious fundamentalists and regressive radicals.