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  • 01 Apr 2026

'Five Kashmir glacial lakes prone to outburst floods’

Bramsar, Chirsar, Nundkol, Gangabal, Bhagsar identified Preliminary geospatial analysis flags downstream exposure Govt says no immediate threat

Srinagar, Mar 31: The government on Tuesday informed the Legislative Assembly that five glacial lakes in the Kashmir Himalaya have been identified as highly susceptible to Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), based on a recent scientific study conducted by the University of Kashmir. The information was shared in response to a query raised by National Conference MLA Tanvir Sadiq, who sought details regarding the vulnerability of glacial lakes and the potential risks posed to downstream populations and infrastructure. According to the reply, the study—published in the Journal of Glaciology and carried out by researchers from the Department of Geo-informatics—analysed 155 glacial lakes across the Kashmir Himalaya. Using a set of hydro-geomorphic indicators, including lake expansion rate, dam stability, and surrounding environmental conditions, the researchers classified a small number of lakes under the “very high susceptibility” category. These include Bramsar, Chirsar, Nundkol, Gangabal and Bhagsar. The government, however, clarified that the classification should not be misconstrued as an immediate threat. A “high susceptibility” tag indicates that

these lakes could be more prone to outburst events if specific triggering conditions—such as heavy rainfall, rapid glacial melt, or seismic disturbances—were to occur. It does not imply that the lakes are currently unstable, actively breaching, or likely to fail in the near future. Importantly, the study also incorporated a preliminary assessment of downstream exposure. Through geospatial analysis, researchers identified habitations and critical infrastructure—including roads, bridges, and hydropower assets—situated along potential flood pathways originating from these lakes. Districts such as Ganderbal, Shopian and Kulgam were part of this initial vulnerability mapping exercise. Described as a “first-order approximation,” this assessment provides a foundational understanding of areas that could be impacted in the event of a GLOF. It is intended to guide policymakers and disaster management authorities in prioritising regions for more detailed investigations and mitigation planning. The government noted that a comprehensive risk assessment of GLOFs in the Kashmir Valley remains a complex challenge. Accurate estimation of flood magnitude, flow velocity, and warning time requires

precise data on glacial lake volumes and depths—information that can only be obtained through detailed field-based bathymetric surveys. Such data is currently limited for most Himalayan glacial lakes due to the region’s difficult terrain and accessibility constraints. To address these gaps, researchers at the University of Kashmir are actively working on developing a specialised GLOF early warning system tailored to mountainous environments. The initiative aims to integrate satellite-based monitoring, field observations, sensor-driven meteorological inputs, and near real-time communication systems to enable timely detection and dissemination of alerts. The Assembly disclosure underscores the growing recognition of climate-linked risks in the fragile Himalayan ecosystem. As glacial dynamics continue to evolve due to rising temperatures, the government’s emphasis on scientific monitoring and early warning mechanisms signals a shift toward proactive disaster risk reduction. While the findings do not indicate any immediate danger, they highlight the urgent need for sustained research, inter-agency coordination, and community-level preparedness to safeguard lives and infrastructure in vulnerable regions of Jammu and Kashmir.

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