The political situation in Jammu and Kashmir continues to unfold with the announcement of holding Assembly Elections in three phases in the UT of Jammu and Kashmir. Despite this, it is unlikely that the elections will bring about significant changes in the political landscape, largely due to the entrenched positions of the traditional political parties and the failure of new alternatives to gain substantial ground.
Stagnation of Traditional Parties
The people of Jammu and Kashmir have grown increasingly disillusioned with the traditional political parties, primarily the National Conference (NC), the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). These parties have dominated the political scene for decades, but their inability to address key issues—such as unemployment, corruption, and infrastructure development—has led to widespread dissatisfaction. Despite this, the absence of a viable alternative means that these parties are likely to retain much of their influence.
National Conference (NC)
The NC remains a formidable force in Kashmir, largely due to its deep-rooted political presence, strong organizational structure, and the influence of the Abdullah family. The party’s history and its connection with the region’s political heritage give it a robust base, bolstered by a dedicated cadre. While the NC has faced criticism for its inability to prevent the abrogation of Article 370 and its perceived alignment with the central government, it is likely to retain a significant share of the vote. The party’s influence will be felt across most constituencies, especially in the Kashmir Valley, where it is expected to lead in the number of seats won.
People’s Democratic Party (PDP)
The PDP, led by Mehbooba Mufti, is also expected to perform well, although not as strongly as the NC. The party has lost some ground since its alliance with the BJP, which many in Kashmir viewed as a betrayal of its principles. However, the PDP still commands loyalty in parts of the Valley, particularly in South Kashmir. The contest between the NC and the PDP in many constituencies will likely be ver close, with individual candidates’ performance playing a critical role in the outcomes.
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
The BJP is expected to do well in the Jammu region, where it has a strong base due to its focus on nationalism and development. The party has made significant inroads in Jammu, particularly among the Hindu population, and it is likely to emerge as the dominant force in the region. However, the BJP’s influence in the Kashmir Valley remains limited, and it is unlikely to win many seats there. The BJP’s strategy may involve forming post-election alliances to secure a position of power, especially if no party wins an outright majority.
Failure of New Alternatives
There was a palpable desire among the people of Jammu and Kashmir for a new political alternative that could break the dominance of the traditional parties. However, the new political formations that have emerged have struggled to establish themselves as credible contenders.
Apni Party
The Apni Party, led by Altaf Bukhari, made a significant attempt to position itself as an alternative to the traditional parties. The party’s pragmatic approach and focus on development rather than ideological issues initially attracted some support. However, the Apni Party has struggled to expand its influence beyond a few constituencies. Candidates like Mir Ghulam Hassan, Altaf Bukhari, and Abdul Majeed Paddar have their own strongholds, but the party as a whole has not been able to build a broad base of support. Additionally, the party’s tilt towards the BJP and the inclusion of some leaders with questionable reputations, with no thorough screening done, have further undermined its credibility. As a result, while some Apni Party candidates may perform well in their respective constituencies, the party is unlikely to make a major impact on the overall election results.
Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP)
The DPAP, headed by veteran politician Ghulam Nabi Azad, has also struggled to gain traction. Azad’s popularity as a former Union Minister and Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir has not translated into widespread support for his new party. The DPAP’s failure to attract many prominent leaders and the lack of strong candidates to contest the elections are significant challenges. While Azad himself may retain some influence, particularly in his home region, the party is unlikely to be a major player in the elections.
Er Rashid ’S Awami Ittihad Party (AIP)
The AIP, led by Engineer Rashid, made a surprising impact in the previous parliamentary elections, particularly in the Kupwara district. However, it is uncertain whether the party can replicate that success in the Assembly elections. While AIP may still garner a substantial number of votes, especially in its strongholds, it is unlikely to challenge the dominance of the NC and PDP on a wider scale. Rashid’s appeal is largely localized, and without a broader organizational structure, the AIP may struggle to expand its influence beyond specific constituencies.
Electoral Dynamics: Regional and Coalition Considerations
The electoral dynamics in Jammu and Kashmir are likely to be shaped by regional considerations and the potential for post-election coalitions.
Jammu Region
In the Jammu region, the BJP is expected to be the dominant force, followed by the Congress. The BJP’s focus on issues like development, security, and the abrogation of Article 370 resonates with many voters in Jammu, where the party has consolidated its support base. The Congress, though weakened, still has a presence in the region and may pick up a few seats, particularly in areas where it has historically strong candidates.
Kashmir Valley
In the Kashmir Valley, the contest will primarily be between the NC and the PDP, with the NC likely to emerge as the largest party. However, the PDP’s performance in South Kashmir could make the race more competitive. Besides the PDP, many candidates from different parties, such as Ghulam Hassan Mir, Abdul Gani Vakil, Abdul Waheed Padar and the prominent figures Ansari and Lone in Kupwara, will pose a significant challenge. The Congress and smaller parties like the Apni Party and the AIP may win a few seats, but they are unlikely to pose a serious challenge to the NC or PDP. The NC’s influence in the Valley is likely to be significant, with many constituencies expected to see close contests between NC and PDP candidates.
Coalition Scenarios
The possibility of a coalition government cannot be ruled out, particularly if no single party wins an outright majority. In such a scenario, the role of smaller parties and independent candidates could become crucial. The BJP may seek to form alliances to secure a share of power, possibly with the NC, depending on the post-election arithmetic. Additionally, the role of the INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) bloc could be significant if they contest together. A united opposition could potentially win more seats and challenge the BJP’s dominance, but this would depend on the effectiveness of their alliance and the distribution of seats. The dynamics of coalition formation will largely depend on the final election results and the strategic negotiations between the parties.
Role of the INDIA Bloc
The INDIA bloc, an alliance of opposition parties formed to challenge the BJP at the national level, could play a significant role in the Jammu and Kashmir elections. If the bloc contests the elections together, they are likely to win more seats than if they were to contest separately. The bloc’s strength lies in its ability to unite diverse political forces and present a common front against the BJP.
INDIA Bloc’s ’S Potential Impact:
In Jammu and Kashmir
INDIA bloc’s impact would depend on the cohesion of the alliance and its ability to present a unified agenda. If the NC, PDP, and Congress were to come together under the INDIA bloc, they could potentially secure a majority in the Assembly. However, the success of such an alliance would depend on effective seat-sharing arrangements and the ability to overcome internal differences. The BJP, on the other hand, would need to counter this alliance by solidifying its base in Jammu and attempting to make inroads in the Valley.
Challenges for the INDIA Bloc
While the INDIA bloc has the potential to win more seats as a united front, there are significant challenges to its success. The differing political ideologies and agendas of the NC, PDP, and Congress could lead to internal conflicts and affect the bloc’s overall effectiveness. Additionally, the alliance would need to convince voters that it can deliver on key issues such as development, governance, and security. The BJP is likely to use its resources and organizational strength to counter the INDIA bloc’s campaign and highlight any perceived weaknesses in the alliance.
Conclusion: A Complex Political Landscape
The political landscape in Jammu and Kashmir remains complex and unpredictable. While traditional parties like the NC, PDP, and BJP are likely to dominate the elections, the failure of new alternatives to establish themselves suggests that significant changes are unlikely. The Apni Party and DPAP, despite their efforts, have not managed to create a broad base of support, and their impact on the elections will likely be limited to a few constituencies.
The potential for coalition governments and the role of the INDIA bloc add further complexity to the situation. The BJP is expected to perform well in Jammu, while the NC and PDP will compete closely in the Kashmir Valley. The final outcome will depend on a variety of factors, including regional dynamics, individual candidates’ performances, and the effectiveness of alliances. In the end, while the elections may not bring about a major political shift, they will nonetheless be a critical test of the current political realities in Jammu and Kashmir.
(The author is a Politcal Analyst, Social Activist and National TV debater. The Views expressed are his own and can be reached on @[email protected]
