KU study warns rapid warming in high-altitude zones destabilising glaciers
Abid Bashir
Srinagar, May 24: Far above the pine forests and meadows of Kashmir, where glaciers cling to rugged mountain ridges and icy streams carve their way through deep Himalayan gorges, temperatures are rising at an alarming pace.
A long-term hydro-meteorological study conducted by researchers from University of Kashmir (KU) has found that temperatures above 3,000 metres in Kashmir’s Himalayan region are increasing sharply, signalling a dangerous transformation in one of South Asia’s most climate-sensitive mountain systems.
The research, based on nearly four decades of observations at the Pahalgam meteorological station situated at 3,030 metres above sea level in the glacier-rich Lidder Valley, reveals that Kashmir’s upper Himalayas are warming significantly even though rainfall patterns have shown no major long-term trend.
Scientists say the findings point toward a silent but accelerating climate crisis unfolding in the Valley’s fragile cryosphere — the frozen ecosystem of glaciers, snowfields and alpine freshwater reserves.
Led by noted earth scientist and glaciologist Professor Shakil Ahmad Romshoo, the study analysed temperature, precipitation and streamflow data collected since 1980.
Researchers found that while the annual average rainfall in the Lidder Valley remained around 1,275 mm with no significant overall increase or decrease, temperatures continued to rise steadily across the high-altitude region.
Climate experts describe this as a critical warning sign because warming at elevations above 3,000 metres can rapidly alter glacier behaviour, snowmelt cycles and river discharge patterns.
“This is elevation-driven climate acceleration,” researchers observed, warning that mountain ecosystems tend to warm faster than lower-altitude regions.
The Lidder Valley hosts nearly 58 glaciers spread across approximately 34 square kilometres, acting as natural freshwater reservoirs that sustain river flows during warmer months. But scientists warn that increasing temperatures are destabilising this delicate hydrological balance.
As glaciers melt more rapidly, rivers initially receive excess water, increasing discharge levels. However, over time, shrinking glacier mass reduces the mountains’ capacity to store and gradually release freshwater, threatening long-term water availability downstream.
Researchers say the changing hydrology could have serious implications for Kashmir’s agriculture, hydropower generation and drinking water supply, all of which depend heavily on glacier-fed river systems.
The study employed the internationally recognised Mann-Kendall statistical test to identify long-term trends in hydro-meteorological data. Scientists say the method is especially reliable in mountainous regions where weather records are often irregular and influenced by extreme terrain conditions.
Globally, climate scientists increasingly describe the Himalayas as the planet’s “Third Pole” because of their vast ice reserves outside the Arctic and Antarctica. However, these mountains are now warming faster than many lowland regions due to greenhouse gas emissions, black carbon deposits and shifting atmospheric circulation patterns.
Researchers warn that what is unfolding in Kashmir’s upper Himalayas is not merely a regional environmental issue but part of a larger global climate emergency affecting mountain ecosystems worldwide.
Meanwhile, climate experts caution that the changes unfolding in Kashmir’s high-altitude zones could soon reshape life far beyond the mountain valleys. From shrinking water reserves and altered agricultural cycles to heightened risks of floods and droughts, the impacts of Himalayan warming are expected to ripple across the entire Kashmir basin. Scientists say the rapidly heating mountain belt is emerging as one of the world’s most vulnerable climate frontiers, where even small increases in temperature can trigger major ecological and hydrological disruptions with consequences for millions dependent on glacier-fed rivers.