FRAGRANCE OF IDEAS
The eagerly awaited results of the Maharashtra and Jharkhand assemblies are out along with the results of several by-polls in a number of states. Maharashtra due to its overwhelming importance in the political spectrum of the country surely was the focal point for all concerned for the last six months. The Lok Sabha results in June this year had given a jolt to the BJP particularly in four states namely, UP, Maharashtra, Haryana and Rajasthan. Results in all these four states brought the tally of the BJP-NDA considerably down in the Lok Sabha. Since the Indi-Alliance and particularly the Congress tried to spread a narrative that the BJP under PM Modi had started a political and electoral rollback, there was a need for course correction. Developments of the last five to six months have changed the whole scenario and demolished the Congress’s fake narrative.
In October this year, the results of the Assembly elections in Haryana and J&K took away the steam out of the Indi-Alliance fake narrative focused on “Kisan-Jawan-Pahalwan-Samvidhan”. Haryana created history by reversing the Lok Sabha election trend in the state and the voters gave a clear mandate to the BJP for the third time in a row in the state assembly. However, in J&K, the two regions of the state voted in two different ways, Kashmir going the National Conference way and the Jammu region siding with the BJP. In UP, the by-polls in the nine assembly segments of the state posed a great challenge to the NDA-BJP in view of the Lok Sabha results. The Chief Minister of the state, Yogi Adityanath accepted the challenge and led an inspiring campaign to demolish the fake narrative unleashed by the SP-Congress combine. Resultantly, NDA-BJP swept the by-polls and won 7 out of 9 seats including the Muslim dominated seats. In Rajasthan too, the BJP won 4 out of the 5 seats that went to the by-polls this time.
Along with Haryana, UP and Rajasthan, it was the state of Maharashtra that was due for the course correction in context of the Lok Sabha results in the state. The results of the Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra had put the NDA and particularly the BJP in a very tight position. It required a complete overhaul of the party’s agenda, campaign and the management of the elections including an acceptable narrative and leadership. The kind of a comprehensive victory in Maharashtra this time confirms the fact that the June 2024 Lok Sabha results in some of the states in favour of Indi-Alliance was only an aberration.
The mandate of Maharashtra this time is unprecedented and historic and can’t be compared with any other mandate in the state. It has surely set the tone of the national narrative afresh. It is for the first time that BJP has won 132 seats in the state assembly with 27% of total votes. The BJP has been able to achieve a strike rate of an unbelievable 89%. The other partners in the NDA (called Mahayuti in Maharashtra) also are successful with flying colours. The Shiv Sena headed by the CM Eknath Shinde won 57 seats with a vote share of 12% and the NCP headed by Ajit Pawar has been victorious in 41 assembly segments with 9% of the total votes. Both these two parties have been successful with 70% strike rate. The gross percentage of votes of the Mahayuti crossed 50%, well ahead of the Indi-Alliance (called Maha Vikas Agadi-MVA in the state). The Mahayuti has got a gigantic majority of 230 seats in the 288 member assembly. In addition, some of the elected members from a few smaller parties already extended their support to the Mahayuti.
The MVA has been literally decimated in these elections. It seems that the voters in the state have punished the parties of the MVA for their past mistakes, appeasement politics, anti-development mindset and particularly for their fake narratives against Sanatan. All the three constituents of the MVA have faced complete rout this time. While Congress has been reduced to all time low 16 seats, the other two parties namely the Shiv Sena(UBT) and NCP(SP) have miserably been consigned to 20 and 10 seats respectively. The MVA got 34% of the vote share in total with Congress, Shiv Sena(UBT) and NCP(SP) getting 12%, 10% and 9% respectively. The MVA has witnessed a sharp decline in its vote base throughout the state across regions. However, the Mahayuti has been able to increase its vote share in all the six regions of the state.
For all practical purposes, the results earlier in Haryana and now in Maharashtra settle many questions which were raised after the Lok Sabha election results. The BJP under the leadership of PM Modi has no challenger at a national level. Slowly and steadily, it has been able to wipe out Congress from the states one after the other. The regional parties have already done so in a number of states for a long time. The Congress is now virtually at the mercy of the regional parties in a number of states and has lost its leading role in the opposition camp. It has paid a big price already for its appeasement policies, anti-India ideology, bad governance, corruption and fake narratives against the Central government and the PM Narendra Modi.
The slogan of “Batogey toh Katogey” by Yogi Adityanth went deep down the minds of the people and it created an overwhelming impact. “Ek hain toh safe hain” campaign-cry by PM Modi was an icing on the cake for the NDA. The BJP and its allies have no immediate challenger as it has managed to mobilise religious, regional, caste and class sentiments in its favour, making opponents, their partners and echo-system irrelevant. Whoever becomes the Chief Minister of Maharashtra, the dynamics of the NDA has been decisively transformed in the BJP’s favour.
The victory in Maharashtra will reinforce the authority of Prime Minister Modi, UP CM Yogi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah. Devendra Fadnavis has emerged as an iconic Hindutva leader in Maharashtra with wider acceptability in the political arena at the national level. The marginal gains made by the Congress in the general election were not indicative of any substantive turn in politics, and the party is at a loss yet again. The Congress’s clamor for a caste census and its line about the Constitution being in danger were effectively countered by the BJP. However, the Congress can take consolation in Jharkhand where the JMM made history. The victory in Jharkhand primarily belongs to JMM, the Congress is just an appendage there.
The BJP’s call for Hindu consolidation in Maharashtra had more takers, and it could paint the MVA as a platform of dominant Marathas and for minority appeasement. Welfare schemes, particularly cash incentives for women, also worked in the Mahayuti’s favour. Uddhav Thackeray was severely punished by the voters for drifting away from the Hindutva ideology, snapping ties with the BJP; and aligning with the Congress and the NCP. Sharad Pawar’s political base has been hit and demolished and his party has been put in an uncertain future.
The regional politics of Maharashtra yielded to the BJP’s Hindutva platform which was fully supported by the Shiv Sena and the other nationalist organisations including the powerful RSS. Invocation of Shivaji, Veer Savarkar and the likes during the campaign showed wisdom, nationalist character and statesmanship of the BJP and its allies in Mahayuti. This mandate has also set the platform for the long awaited civic elections in the state which are overdue now. It will take a miracle for the MVA to rejuvenate itself so soon. Its partners will be unable to send their representatives to the Rajya Sabha on their own nor will any of them qualify for the position of the leader of opposition in the assembly.
The huge mandate in Maharashtra will be followed by the movement of a number of issues at national level including Waqf Bill, UCC and ‘One nation one election’ proposal. General census in the country followed by delimitation of constituencies are due now. There are also serious issues like Population control, NRC and unemployment of youth waiting for resolution. Parliament is in session and all eyes are fixed on its proceedings. It is time to move forward with a new vigour and zeal.
(The author is a senior BJP and KP leader, human rights defender, author and columnist and can be reached at [email protected])
