Kashmir’s Broken Seasons
Erratic weather is no longer a passing anomaly; it is becoming the Valley’s most dangerous new normal
Kashmir is losing the certainty of its seasons. What was once a valley of recognisable rhythms, snow in winter, blossom in spring, mild summer, and predictable rain cycles, is now trapped in a pattern of dangerous instability. Dry winters, weak snowfall, sudden hailstorms, prolonged heat, and uneven rainfall are no longer isolated surprises. They are warnings. And the warning is stark: the climate crisis is no longer approaching Kashmir; it has arrived. The evidence is difficult to ignore. Jammu and Kashmir recorded a 39 percent rainfall deficit between October and December 2025, receiving 77.5 mm against the normal 127.7 mm. During the first half of January 2026, the region saw a shocking 96 percent deficiency in rain and snowfall, producing what many described as a near snowless Chilai Kalan. February deepened the anxiety, with Srinagar recording one of its driest February periods in decades. These are not merely figures in a weather register. In Kashmir, they translate into shrinking streams, stressed orchards, anxious farmers, and an economy pushed closer to the edge. What makes the crisis more alarming is its unpredictability. The Valley is not simply becoming warmer or drier; it is becoming erratic. Shopian, one of Kashmir’s key horticultural districts, saw monsoon rainfall fall 58 percent below normal in 2025. Then come sudden violent weather events — hailstorms that shred apple blossoms and fruit, heavy bursts of rain that flood fields after weeks of dryness, and heat that scorches a region once known for its temperate comfort. In June 2025, Srinagar touched 34.8°C, even exceeding Jammu on one of the hottest days, an inversion that underlined how deeply the climatic balance has been disturbed. What Kashmir now needs is not routine alarm after every weather shock, but a clear climate adaptation strategy: stronger local forecasting, crop insurance that actually protects growers, scientific orchard planning, water conservation, protection of wetlands, and serious climate-sensitive governance. The Valley cannot afford to treat erratic weather as seasonal bad luck anymore. It is a structural threat. The old Kashmir of dependable seasons is fading. If this crisis continues to be met with hesitation, the Valley will pay not only with economic loss, but with ecological decline that may take generations to repair.
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