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3rd wave is possible, but it is difficult to predict it's timing, pattern and severity.

Historically and scientifically pandemics tend to occur in waves, and each wave causes a large number of cases with chaged spectrum of illness, morbidity and mortality. There is a possibility of a third wave, but it is difficult to predict its timing and

Post by on Tuesday, May 25, 2021

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Historically and scientifically pandemics tend to occur in waves, and each wave causes a large number of cases with chaged spectrum of illness, morbidity and mortality. There is a possibility of a third wave, but it is difficult to predict its timing and severity. Pandemic is not like weather where we can predict exact peak like Sonam Lotus can do by measuring intensity and velocity of Western disturbance. Viral pandemic is a dynamic relationship between behavior of virus and behavior of people. If people are following covid appropriately behavior (CAB) , the curve will flatten. 

Said that right now mutated strains have very aggresive behavior and high rate of transmission. The virus is spreading to  rural , border and snowbound areas. Therefore to keep curve flattened, it is mandatory for people to strictly follow administrative guidelines  and go for mass vaccination.Further we should not lower our guard and must learn how to live with the virus. Eventually 2nd wave is going to die down and may resurface as 3rd wave with different spectrum, pattern, severity and outcome. 

Eventually, most of the population  will get immune to coronovirus by asymptomatic or symptomatic infections  and or vaccination, what we call as herd immunity over a time period of 2 to 3 years. This viral pandemics will die out or may become endemic ailments in the community with low transmission rates, when level of herd immunity reachs to 60 percent by direct infection or vaccination.

Dr Suhail Naik 


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